Two sides who go into the final match in Group E in Euro2016 with a chance of still making it into the knockout stages are Sweden and Belgium and they meet each other in Nice to battle it out to see who comes behind Italy in the final table.
Sweden have to win and hope the Republic don’t beat Italy by three or more goals to come second in the group and qualify. Belgium just need to avoid defeat and they will be the runners-up and heading to face the winners of Group F in the last 16.
I’ve been very disappointed with Sweden in the tournament so far. Zlatan Ibrahimovic hasn’t been able to get into the tournament and as such his side haven’t been able to land a blow so far. Talking of blows Sweden have to recover from the blow of losing so late on to Italy last time out.
Sweden’s attacking unit haven’t really fired yet and I’m a little bit worried about them defensively too because there were times that Ireland were on top of them. If they are to win this game you would think they will need a clean sheet as they are not scoring goals at the minute.
Key Man
If Sweden go out here this will be the final match of Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s international career. He won’t want to go out with a whimper. That has never been his style so look to the mercurial one to show something on the big stage one last time.
The Belgians were torn apart by Italy in their opening match but then they were equally as dominant in their own destruction of the Republic of Ireland in their second match. You would have to say Ireland were quite naïve at times in that match but we can’t criticise that performance. It was very strong.
Perhaps the most encouraging thing to happen to Belgium in that match was the form that Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku showed in that game. Those two with Kevin de Bruyne make a pretty fearsome front three which has to be respected at any level.
Key Man
Romelu Lukaku is a real physical presence but he can come short and he can go long too. He is a real threat as he showed against Ireland and now he is a confident threat and we’ve seen in the Premier League how that can be a bad combination for opposition defenders. I’m expecting big things from the Everton man here.
Team News
Sweden are going to be without their right-back Mikael Lustig once again as he has a groin strain. Erik Hamren will have to decide whether Marcus Berg or John Guidetti will be Ibrahimovic’s strike partner in what could be his final match.
Moussa Dembele picked up an injury against the Republic in the previous match and he probably isn’t going to be risked in this one. Radja Nainggolan is the obvious choice to replace the Tottenham man in what may well be the only change for Marc Wilmots.
Head to Head
There have been 13 meetings between these two through the test of time and Belgium have had the upper hand. They have won seven times and lost just four with two draws. Belgium have won the last two matches and you have to go all the way back to 1961 for the last time Sweden beat the Belgians. That is a run which is going to have to end if Sweden are to stay in the tournament.
Betting
This is a tricky match for me to bet on because I don’t really rate either side but I think the time for taking Belgium on again will come later in the tournament. I certainly don’t think they are potential winners or anything like that but I do recognise the gulf in class between Belgium and Sweden should the Belgians keep Ibrahimovic quiet.
I think this is a bad match up for Sweden and history tells us that. Sweden just aren’t strong enough defensively to repel this Belgian attack whereas Belgium’s defence is very good and you can see them shackling Ibrahimovic or at the very least reducing his effectiveness.
I don’t think backing Belgium at odds on is going to get you very rich over the course of time but given the gulf in class between these two I think it is the way to go in this match. I expect them to move into the knockout stage with a second straight win as Ireland and Sweden look far inferior to anything else in the group.
Tips
WON – Back Belgium to beat Sweden for a 4/10 stake at 1.87 with Betfred
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