The PGA Tour moves to Torrey Pines in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open, the tournament which begins two months of fantastic golf and really kicks the season into life on this side of the pond.
Luke List kicked his campaign into gear here last year when he sauntered away with the title and he will be back looking for a successful title defence. Some standout stars will be among those who will be out to stop that from happening.
Recent Winners
2022 – Luke List
2021 – Patrick Reed
2020 – Marc Leishman
2019 – Justin Rose
2018 – Jason Day
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Brandt Snedeker
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Scott Stallings
2013 – Tiger Woods
The Courses
For the second week in succession we have multiple courses in use this week. We are at Torrey Pines where the North Course and the South Course will be used. The field will play the two once over the first two rounds before those who make the cut will play the final 36 holes on the South Course, the track which hosted the US Open a couple of years ago. Both courses are par 72s with the North measuring 7,256 yards which probably needs to be taken advantage of because the South is a monster at 7,765 yards, comfortably the longest on the PGA Tour.
The weather often has an impact in this tournament and it is expected to be cool for the most part so that South Course is likely to play like a bit of a beast. The wind is likely to be minimal with the exception of the second round so that is a help to the players. You need a bit of length here but it can be important to hit the fairways too. Quite often, as is the case with all Championship courses, putting is a key statistic and these greens aren’t necessarily the easiest to putt on. This is basically a very good test.
The Field
The standout player in the field this week is the man who is gunning for his fourth week in five starts in the form of Jon Rahm who has something of a love affair with this place having won his first PGA Tour title here in 2017 and then the US Open in 2021. He could take a lot of beating but the defending champion Luke List will want to hold onto his title while former winners Jason Day and Scott Stallings will be looking to get their hands on the title once again.
The star names don’t end with those though. Tony Finau has become a winning machine over the last 12 months while Xander Schauffele looked in decent order last week. Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris and Collin Morikawa are three other players from the top shelf who are often contenders whenever they tee it up while the international charge will be headed by Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama. Taylor Montgomery is one of a few rookies who will hope to contend here.
Market Leaders
Given the form he is in and the love he has for this course it is no surprise that Jon Rahm is the 9/2 favourite for this tournament. Players don’t often win in successive weeks though so that is a downside on his chances. In saying that, he is the standout player in the field and is playing some brilliant golf at the minute so he is very much the one to beat on a course where he has so many good memories you know he will be in a positive place mentally. 9/2 is still a little short to me though.
Tony Finau is the second favourite to win this week. He is a 12/1 shot to better his four top 10s in the tournament. He arrives here having won regularly over the last 12 months and that confidence should make him even more dangerous around here. Finau has already won this season and opened up 2023 with solid efforts in Hawaii and last week so it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to be heavily in the mix come Sunday but the price is probably about right.
Xander Schauffele is also a 12/1 poke to win the tournament this week. He is starting to not win enough for my liking if I was to back someone at a price like this but he comes in here off the back of a solid effort last week which included an albatross in the final round. He was second here in 2021 and T7 at the US Open that year. Schauffele is the home man in the field this week which might be significant but it hasn’t done him any favours so far in terms of winning and he feels just a little short to me.
Will Zalatoris and Justin Thomas are the other players shorter than 20/1 on the best prices. They are 18/1. Zalatoris is trending in the right direction around here with a T7 two years ago before going down to Luke List in the playoff 12 months ago. He is still working his way back to full fitness after surgery though and I’d like to see him in contention before I backed him. In terms of profile Thomas should go very well here but his record suggests there is something about the place he doesn’t quite get on with so I’ll leave both alone.
Main Bets
I’ve long thought Collin Morikawa was a man to follow in 2023 now he seems to have found a groove in his putting game and so I’m happy that he had a bit of a meltdown at the Tournament of Champions when I wasn’t on him. He had that won with flawless golf for the first 63 holes but then stalled on the back nine on the Sunday and allowed Rahm to come through and beat him but Morikawa is the kind of person who will take fuel from that and I expect another decent showing here. He put to bed the argument that you need to have length here when he was T4 at the US Open a couple of years ago. As long as you hit it straight you’ll get round and few do it better than Morikawa. With an extra zip in his putting he has the tools to contend here.
Jason Day is an absolutely obvious pick this week after a decent showing at The American Express last week. He spoke there of how well he is feeling now and someone who has been a bit of a tee to green monster this season has to be backed on a course he has won twice at and has numerous decent finishes on. When Day is on song he has no weakness to his game and that was certainly evident last week. Day was third here a year ago when his game wasn’t in good order and his body wasn’t either but with the confidence he spoke with a week ago and his record here makes me think he’s primed for a decent showing.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a couple of outsiders this week who rank fairly well on the strokes gained from tee to green statistic this season and who can get hot with the putter. Adam Hadwin isn’t the longest on the tour but he has a top 20 finish in this event to his name a couple of years ago and ranked second for the two rounds which were counted in the strokes gained tee to green department last week. He carded -20 for that week so he is clearly getting the ball to the hole nicely. If he can take advantage of the North Course and hang tough on the South one then he could go well here.
Ben Taylor hasn’t really achieved a huge amount on the PGA Tour but he was third in Houston and fourth in the Sony Open so clearly his game is in a much better shape for this campaign than in previous ones. He has had a couple of spins around here with nothing really to shout about but he hasn’t arrived at this tournament with the bank of form behind him that he has here. They are toughening these championship courses up these days so if there is an extra premium on tee to green golf, which statistics suggest there is here, then Taylor, who sits 27 for the season for strokes gained tee to green and who was 15 and 16 in those two events he finished in the top five in, should go well if he can get a few putts to drop.
Tips
Back C.Morikawa to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back J.Day to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Hadwin to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back B.Taylor to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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