It could be a big day in the footballing history of Morocco on Thursday when they conclude their FIFA World Cup Group F campaign with a match against Canada, one which could see the African side qualify for the knockout stages for the first time in 36 years.
Morocco go into the final match knowing that if they avoid defeat to an already eliminated Canada they will be through to the round of 16. Canada know that they are going home after this match but they have given so much to the tournament that they will want to impress again.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC 2 channel in the UK with the shortened build-up beginning at 2.45pm and kick off coming along at 3pm.
Canada
They might have lost their opening two games but Canada have given more to this tournament than plenty who are still fighting for qualification from their group. There is no escaping the fact that Canada have been naïve at times but this is a young squad competing in this tournament for the first time in 36 years so we have to cut them a little bit of slack for that. They have been refreshing though in the fact they have gone after supposedly bigger and better teams and shown no fear.
Canada have lacked a clinical edge in the tournament to convert a decent number of their chances but they have shown an ability to create plenty. That will be tested here against a resolute Morocco defence so they will need to be even more ruthless here. They are also going to need to defend better if they are going to leave the tournament with a win. The other thing you would say about Canada is they put so much effort into getting at teams they do tire in the second half which is something to watch here.
Morocco
This has been a campaign that I doubt even the most optimistic Moroccan could have wished for so far. They contained Croatia in a less than appealing 0-0 draw in their opening match and then went after Belgium and were rewarded with a fine win, a reward for realising the chance was there for them and then being good enough to go and take it. There is some real quality throughout the pitch in this Morocco side so they are certainly good enough to win this one.
Where problems could lie is that this is the first match in the tournament that they have been expected to win. I think that is a concern although it is tempered a little by the fact that Morocco will have been favourites to win plenty of Africa Cup of Nations matches through the year. The other issue is a draw is perfectly good enough for Morocco here so they need to avoid the trap the likes of Ecuador, Iran and Poland fell into in a similar situation of not knowing whether to push for the win or look to contain.
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Team News
A third game in the space of around eight days could be too much for Atiba Hutchinson so CF Montreal midfielder Ismael Kone could come in for him. Junior Hoilett impressed off the bench against Croatia and might start instead of Cyle Larin.
Morocco are expected to have their goalkeeper Yassine Bounou available for this match after he shot off after the anthems against Belgium and was never seen again. Sofiane Boufal was frustrated at being taken off in the previous match and might have a point to prove.
Betting
I like Morocco to win this match but I’m going to go searching for a little bit of value and back them to win the second half rather than the match. I would expect Canada to come out all guns blazing here. It is what they have done in their opening two games and it wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense for them to stop that now they have been knocked out of the competition, so Morocco might need to weather an early storm.
Whether they do that and go in level at half time or fail to do it and go in behind I think the African side can win the second half. If they are behind they’ll need to win the second half if the other game isn’t going their way but if Croatia are winning the other game then Morocco might as well try and win this as they’ll be through with a defeat anyway. I don’t actually think Morocco will have to do much to come out on top in the second period because Canada have visibly weakened in both matches and Morocco have got stronger after the break. If those trends continue here, and I certainly expect them to, then Morocco can win the second half regardless of the end result.
Tips
Back Morocco to win second half for a 3/10 stake at 2.40 with William Hill
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