Group E concludes at the FIFA World Cup on Thursday evening and one of the closing matches sees Japan looking to pull off another shock at these finals when they go up against the 2010 champions Spain in a key game.
Spain go into this one knowing they are through if they avoid defeat and they’ll win the group with a win. Japan have to match the result of the other game in order for them to make it into the round of 16.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the ITV 1 channel in the UK. A good length build-up gets underway at 6.15pm and the all-important kick off comes at 7pm.
Japan
When Japan pulled off one of the big shocks at this tournament in beating Germany in their opening game, most assumed that they had cracked the code to make it into the last 16. What people didn’t feature to be part of the proceedings was for them to undo all that hard work when they were beaten by Costa Rica in their second game. That leaves them probably needing a win from this one if they are going to go on and qualify for the next stage.
Japan are getting plenty of criticism for undoing all their hard work but I mentioned it ahead of the Costa Rica game, they are just not setup or equipped to break stubborn sides down. As they showed against Germany, they are better when they can hit teams on the counter so the positive for them is that they are going to be able to adopt that style here. Clearly though they are going to be up against it defensively against a powerhouse side.
Spain
Spain opened their tournament up in emphatic style with a 7-0 win over Costa Rica in which they were entirely ruthless. They weren’t quite as convincing against Germany in their second game but I suspect that some of their display in that one was about not undoing their position rather than being too intent on winning. That might be the case here too given that they only need to draw to progress but a draw isn’t definitely enough to win the group so they might show a little more intent here.
We’ve seen in both matches that Spain have a huge amount of technical quality in the top end of the pitch but Germany did punch one or two holes in their defence which might come back to haunt them later in the tournament if they are not ironed out. The one thing which only drawing with Germany has done is mean that Luis Enrique can’t really make wholesale changes and get game time into some of his squad members.
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Team News
Japan have a few injury doubts ahead of this game with Arsenal defender Takehiro Tomiyasu among them. He has a hamstring issue as does Hiroki Sakai. Wataru Endo has missed training with a knee problem so he is a doubt too.
Gavi has lit up this tournament already but he missed training in the lead up to this match so he is an injury doubt. Sergio Busquets is expected to be rested for this game as he has already been booked and Spain want him available for the round of 16.
Betting
I think this one is nicely setup for goals. I don’t think Japan can assume a draw will be enough to put them into the next stage so at some point they are going to have to open up a little and risk losing to try and win the game. The problem for Japan is that is only likely to assist Spain scoring. The other problem that Japan have is if Spain score then the Blue Samurai are going to need to score twice and will need to take even more risks.
We saw how ruthless Spain can be in attacking areas in their opening game and we also saw in that first round of matches how Japan’s defence can be opened right up. Germany did it at will but couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net a second and third time to kill the game off. Spain will do that but it shouldn’t be ruled out that Japan can offer something to the scoreboard either so I like over 2.5 goals in this one.
Tips
Back Over 2.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
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