The second quarter final of the FIFA World Cup has plenty of history to it as it is a repeat of the 1978 final as the Netherlands go up against Argentina with the winner booking a semi-final spot against whoever prevails in the earlier game.
That final is one meeting between the two sides but they also met in 1998 when Dennis Bergkamp scored THAT goal and hopefully this one lives up to those battles which went before. Both had good wins in the Round of 16 and should be ready to go here.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC 1 channel in the UK with the build-up to the quarter final beginning at 6.30pm and the game kicking off at 7pm.
Netherlands
The Netherlands went into this tournament as one of the form horses given that they haven’t been beaten since they went out of the Euro 2020 competition last June. That is now 19 matches with 14 wins and five draws so that immediately tells us that they are hard to beat. That isn’t a surprise because in Louis van Gaal they have one of the best tactical minds in the game and he has already led this nation to the semi-final of this tournament in 2014.
He put on a tactical masterclass against USA in the Round of 16 so you would imagine he will come up with something to look to contain this Argentina side. The question then comes whether he can then devise something which will allow his team to get at the Argentina defence. He certainly isn’t short of attacking numbers but whether they have the combined quality to do it could determine the outcome of this quarter final.
Argentina
I think if you ask most judges, certainly neutrals, people have expected more than what we have got from Argentina in this tournament. There have been a few flashes of brilliance from Lionel Messi, but that aside they can generally coasted or cruised through their matches. The same thing was said of Brazil prior to their previous game and we saw what happened there and Argentina now get the chance to put their own marker down ahead of a potential semi-final between the two.
Where Argentina haven’t been flattering to deceive is defensively. Their four outings so far have yielded an zGA combined total of just 1.49 which is very low. If we ignore the two goals Saudi Arabia scored from an xGA of 0.16, Argentina have only conceded one goal since then and if they are defensively astute here they will probably think that Lionel Messi or someone from his attacking support team will provide the important moment which can win them the game here.
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Team News
Louis van Gaal is said to have a fully fit squad to pick from for this match so any changes he makes from the USA win will be purely tactical. Memphis Depay was present alongside his boss at the press conference so he is expected to start a third match in succession.
Argentina winger Angel di Maria is back in training after a quad issue kept him out of the win over Australia. Rodrigo de Paul left that game early and is being assessed to see whether he is good to go in this one.
Betting
Argentina were my main outright bet before a ball was kicked but I always had the Netherlands down as more than just a dark horse. I thought they were the pick of those outside the top five or six in the market hence why I backed them in the outright market ahead of the tournament too. From that point of view, I’m not really bothered who wins as one of them will be playing for me in the semi-final and in truth I’m finding it hard to pick a winner anyway. I’m edging towards the Dutch but I don’t need to get involved in the match betting or qualifying markets.
The bet I am willing to have a small go on is the 8/1 that Denzel Dumfries assists a goal in the game. He setup the first two Dutch goals in the previous round and there is a real weakness down the Argentina left side whether it is Tagliafico or Acuna who plays at left-back. Dumfries is very good going forward and will surely get forward at every opportunity. The Dutch aren’t afraid to overload the box so there should be plenty of players for the Inter Milan defender to aim for so the 8/1 that he assists again is a little too big.
Tips
Back D.Dumfries – Over 0.5 assists for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Bet365
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