Just eighteen days after the previous season ended in Atlanta a new PGA Tour season begins in California on Thursday when the Frys.com Open is played to kick off the new campaign.
Usually this tournament is a low key affair to begin the season with a number of those top players who only finished the season three weeks ago taking time off to rest up and recover after a hectic period.
That isn’t the case this year though. A number of top level players are in the field this week due to skipping an event a few years ago. They include Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose and Charl Schwartzel so this is a much higher profile event that it usually is this year.
The tournament needed some high profile entries because it will be without its defending champion in Sang-Moon Bae as the Korean is off starting his stint of national service.
The North Course at Silverado Spa and Resort in California is the venue for the second year. The course is a par 72 which measures 7,203 yards so it isn’t the longest but generally the longer hitters prosper best here with the par 5s all reachable (including two of the last three holes) and some of the par 4s approachable too.
Those who look for statistics with their picks we’re looking for those good at scoring on the par 5s and also who hit plenty of greens in regulation. The better scramblers shouldn’t be ignored around this track either.
Rory McIlroy leads the betting this week at 5/1, His Ryder Cup colleague Justin Rose is double the price at 10/1. Anyone considering backing those would need to make sure their motivation is high. Presidents Cup star Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka are both 16/1 with it being 33/1 bar that quartet.
I can’t personally be having McIlroy or Rose. Clearly they are the standout men in the field but you have to wonder just how much they want to be here. Equally I can’t take anyone who was involved in the Presidents Cup on the other side of the world. That was a long week and the long flight back won’t have helped.
Although this is a new season the old one hasn’t been finished long enough for the form at the end of it to have no significance and with that in mind I’m going to go with Daniel Berger as my main bet this week.
Berger finished the playoff series in excellent form and he has the sort of profile that should suit this course perfectly. He whacks it a long way off the tee and can take care of the par 5s in the necessary style and he ranked in the top 30 for greens in regulation last year so he ticks all the right boxes statistically.
I think long term Berger is going to be better than the other two bombing rookies from last year in Justin Thomas and Tony Finau and given that he’s a much better price than them here he’s my first pick.
Sticking with the form line I’m going to chance Emiliano Grillo now that he has landed a title. He won the web.com Tour Championship a couple of weeks ago and that form should now see him flourish into the player he can be.
Grillo may not be the longest but he is massively straight from the tee and hits a lot of greens in regulation. Like all golfers he has had his issues with the short stick but confidence is a big thing and he’ll take plenty from winning which should ensure he keeps a nice stroke with the putter. At 50/1 in an open field outside the main four he’s big enough to chance.
I’m going to chance a couple at bigger prices too. The first of those is a man I’ve taken on this blog before in Patrick Rodgers.
Rodgers was ineligible for either tour finals last season so he’s had a bit of an enforced break but he has been busy practicing and should be chomping at the bit to get stuck in now he is fully exempt on tour.
We saw him finish third in the Barracuda Championship last year and that gives us a good form guide as to what he is capable of but his runner up in the Wells Fargo is a better indication of his potential. Rodgers will nail the par 5s and he’ll be way down most fairways. As long as his short game isn’t too rusty he shouldn’t be far away.
Finally I’m going to go with a former winner of this tournament and who was third here last year and that is Bryce Molder. Molder is one of the best scramblers and putters on the PGA Tour so it is no surprise he has a good record around here and as long as his long game is in half decent order I would be surprised if he doesn’t begin the season with a bang.
Back D.Berger to win Frys.com Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back E.Grillo to win Frys.com Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Sportingbet (1/4 1-5)
Back P.Rodgers to win Frys.com Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back B.Molder to win Frys.com Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-6)
