It is the middle day of the Glorious Goodwood festival on Thursday and once again the star horses come out to play at the Sussex track. Four more races are live on ITV while three others take place after they have done. We’re still up for the week despite a disappointing day on Wednesday and are using the house money to fund a couple of bets over the course of the afternoon.
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1.50 Goodwood: Unibet Handicap
Preview
The opening race of Day 3 sees 11 3 year olds going into battle in a competitive handicap over 10 furlongs.
Sinjaari is vying for favouritism off the back of some good early season form although he did disappoint at Ascot last time out. Back in trip, he should go well. Forest Of Dean is another relatively short in the market and he’s been off the track for 75 days which is a slight concern but he’s closely matched on his run against Sinjaari in the London Gold Cup.
Betting
In an effort to find the winner of this, I’m concentrating on the form of a Newmarket handicap 20 days ago. One of today’s runners, Korcho, was 2nd that day but the winner that day, Walkinthesand, is in opposition again and I expect the same result. Richard Hannon is very sweet on his chances and the fact that Ryan Moore again takes the ride is a positive. He won well that day and looked to be value for more than the length he won by. A 5lb rise looks reasonable. Again, he has top weight (races off a mark of 110) and surely this is his last run in a handicap. Hannon had pattern races he could’ve been entered into so the fact he takes his chance in a handicap appears to be a pointer in itself. The trip suits but he also has form over shorter, not least when running ok in finishing 5th to the high class King Of Comedy in a Listed race at Sandown earlier this term. He looks certain to hit the frame at worst.
Tips
Back Walkinthesand (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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3.35 Goodwood: Nassau Stakes
Preview
The big race is the Group 1 Nassau Stakes for 3 year old fillies and mares. 10 furlongs is the trip and there’s 9 runners including the dual 1000 Guineas winner (English & Irish versions) in Hermosa. She’s got solid claims having franked the form by finishing 2nd at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes but she is up in trip. Channel is the French challenger and she won a Group 1 last time out but only just over a length separated the first 6 home so question marks remain over the strength of the form.
Mehdaayih, the Oaks favourite, runs here too after disappointing at Epsom. She had previously won the Chester Oaks and was subsequently supplemented for the classic but was only 7th where she didn’t really handle the track. Failing to handle undulations has to be a concern here at Goodwood.
Betting
Instead, I’m siding with Maqsad who went off 2nd favourite in the Oaks but finished a place behind Mehdaayih. However her excuses are different; she travelled the best and looked the most likely winner just over 2 furlongs but simply she didn’t stay the trip. Down 2 furlongs for this, she looks a big threat to all especially judged on her eyecatching win in the Pretty Polly earlier in the season. She looks certain to be the one most likely to put it to Hermosa and, if the favourite struggles with the trip, she’ll be there to take advantage.
Tips
Back Maqsad (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 BetVictor BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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