The unofficial fifth major is the term we will hear a lot of this week as it is the popular description of The Players Championship, this week’s PGA Tour event. This is the PGA Tour’s flagship event with pretty much anyone who is anyone in the game of golf teeing it up in Florida.
Rickie Fowler won this tournament last year and he is back for more this year as the stars of golf tackle the hardest hole in golf, the island hole at TPC Sawgrass.
Recent champions
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Matt Kuchar
2011 – KJ Choi
2010 – Tim Clark
2009 – Henrik Stenson
2008 – Sergio Garcia
2007 – Phil Mickelson
2006 – Stephen Ames
The course
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is the venue as ever this week. The track is a par 72 which measures 7,215 yards. I always think this course is a tee to green specialist’s paradise but in recent seasons they have protected the greens a bit more so scrambling is a big factor around here now.
The course is all about the 17th hole, just a tiny par 3 in reality but with water surrounding the island green it is a daunting prospect and many a tournament has been ended for a player on this hole.
Ideally I’m looking for strong tee to green players this week. Players who are striking the ball well and who have the ultimate control of their ball. There is plenty of water and sand in play on this course so the control to avoid it is paramount.
The wind is said to blow a little bit this week to give the course even more defence so those proficient in the wind should be moved up any shortlist going into the tournament.
The field
This is a stellar field for this tournament as it always is. There was talk that Tiger Woods might make his return from injury in this event but those rumours were unfounded in the end.
The current top three stars in the game are all here though with Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day all in action and the likes of Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson and the rest of the upper echelons are all in town. On a belting golf course we should be treated to a wonderful week of golf here, one of the very best, and most dramatic of the entire year.
Market leaders
Rory McIlroy is the 8/1 favourite this week but you’re taking a leap of faith with him after he offered near enough a no show until it was too late on one of his favourite courses at Quail Hollow last week. I’m not convinced he’s hitting the ball well enough to win this.
Jordan Spieth is a 10/1 second favourite. We see the young star for the first time since he blew The Masters and it will be interesting to see if there is any lingering hangover from that tournament. In theory this should be just the course he eats up when he’s on song.
Jason Day would be my idea of the favourite this week but he’s as big as 12/1 to win the tournament. The only thing putting me off backing the Australian is the price which is a little short in this company but the way he is playing whoever beats him may well be the champion.
Rickie Fowler came from the clouds to win last year with a run of under par golf rarely seen around this famous venue. He is a 20/1 poke this week but those indulging in that price will need to put Sunday’s shocker out of their minds. This title has never been defended and the odds are against Fowler.
Justin Rose played nicely at Quail Hollow last week and if he can hit the ball as well this week and get a few more putts to drop then the 25/1 on him will look quite big but there lies the problem – the putting. Rose has gone to that claw grip with the putter and I’m immediately put off by people who do that. It means the demons have reached their head more often than not.
It is 30/1 bar those five men in what is a really open and high quality field this week. This is one of those weeks where whoever you back if you find the winner you’ll be suitably rewarded.
Main bets
I’m going with three main bets this week. The first comes in the form of a former champion that is Sergio Garcia. Garcia has shown some good form this season already.
He was second in The Honda Classic in a week nobody was beating Adam Scott and he was just outside the top 10 at the WGC Cadillac on a course probably too long for him. He was also in the top 10 in Qatar and third in Spain on the European Tour so Sergio is hitting it well.
The Spaniard’s record around this course is fantastic though. He was a winner here in 2008 and has six top 10 finishes overall here including a playoff defeat 12 months ago when he arguably could have won in regulation. Given how well Sergio is hitting the ball and the lure of huge Ryder Cup points this week I’m expecting a big run from Garcia.
I’m going to take two winners on the PGA Tour this season as my other two picks and the first of those is Hideki Matsuyama who won the Phoenix Open earlier in the season. In a way that tournament reflects this one in that they build a stadium atmosphere where the pressure is really cranked up. You have to have complete control of your golf ball around there too.
Statistically Matsuyama fits Sawgrass like a glove. There is no weakness to his game but Japan’s number one is a tee to green monster and he ranks fourth in birdies or better this season. He got better and better round by round last week and looks to be coming here in nice form. If he is he’s a massive chance this week.
The other winner on Tour I’m taking is Branden Grace, the winner of the RBC Heritage. Since then he has been in the top 10 in San Antonio so we know the South African is hitting the ball nicely. He sits in 11th place on the PGA Tour for strokes gained from tee to green which shows how well he’s hitting the ball.
We know from watching him in Europe that he’s a good scrambler, he can hole clutch putts and under pressure he really delivers. He’s won in America now and the next thing to do is win an elite standard event such as this. At 45/1 I can’t leave the South African out of my team this week.
Outsiders
Just because the field is as strong as you’ll find outside of a major doesn’t mean to say there is no point in firing darts at a couple of outsiders. Craig Perks, Stephen Ames and to a lesser extent Tim Clark were all surprise winners around here while Kevin Kisner would have been likewise had he seen Fowler off in the playoff last year.
With that in mind I’m going with two and the first of those is Russell Knox, another man who statistically should go well around here. Knox sits third in GIRs on the PGA Tour this year and just outside the top 20 in proximity to the hole. He is also in the top 20 for scrambling so if the putter co-operates he’s a live runner here.
Knox has already won a top class field event this season when he landed the HSBC Champions event prior to Christmas and he was runner up to Grace at The Heritage last time out so his form and his statistics should make him a dangerous player.
My last bet is going to be on a man who went quite well at The Masters and who should be even better suited to this course and that is Soren Kjeldsen. Kjeldsen is as straight as they come from tee to green and this isn’t a course he’s going to get bombed away on which is encouraging.
There is no doubt Kjeldsen’s short stick is playing ball more this season. Since The Masters he was in the top five in Spain so he has maintained his form and if he can get off to a good start he might well be capable of seeing it through right to the end.
Tips
Back S.Garcia to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back B.Grace to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Knox to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back H.Matsuyama to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-6)
Back S.Kjeldsen to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-6)
Back them here:
