Here’s our pinstickers guide to the Grand National, looking at each of the 40 runners, their current best odds and a ‘star’ rating (out of 3), with our final bets for the big race.
✮✮ Anibale Fly (16/1)
4th in this last year and placed in the Gold Cup for the last 2 years. Should go well enough but it’s a tall order with his monster weight.
✮ Valtor (100/1)
12lb higher following his win on his British debut but was pulled up since. Weight, combined with his trainer’s awful record in Nationals, make it easy to dismiss him.
✮✮ Tiger Roll (9/2)
Last year’s winner who has been in arguably even better form this time around. It’s hard to knock his chances but his odds of 9/2 are ridiculous in a race where some luck is needed so it’s best to look elsewhere.
✮ Outlander (150/1)
First run for new stable having been sold 2 days ago. Has been beaten out of sight last 2 starts and definite stamina doubts.
✮ Don Poli (125/1)
Like Outlander, he was sold on Thursday. Formerly high class at won at 2 separate Cheltenham Festivals but has shown absolutely nothing for 3 years now.
✮✮ Go Conquer (50/1)
6lb higher for a good win in the Skybet Chase back in January. Made it over the National fences in the past when running in the Topham but stamina in question having his first run beyond 3 miles.
✮✮ Mala Beach (80/1)
Won the Troytown in 2017 so has some very good form in the book. However, was pulled up on his only start beyond 3 miles 2 furlongs. The ground is unlikely to be soft enough for him.
✮✮ Minella Rocco (40/1)
Has shown nothing of late but they’ve been on soft ground, a surface he hates. Was 2nd in the 2017 Gold Cup so could be well handicapped but needs the ground to dry out.
✮✮ Lake View Lad (18/1)
Was 3rd in the Ultima when bidding for a hat trick but doesn’t look overly well handicapped and has yet to win beyond 3 miles. Could run well for a long way.
✮✮ Pleasant Company (16/1)
Only just denied by Tiger Roll last year when finishing with a fair rattle but has shown nothing this season. He does, however, like these fences after finishing 9th in 2017 in this race too.
✮ Ballyoptic (40/1)
In and out chaser who was at his best when 2nd in the Scottish National but fell over these fences in December and was pulled up last time out.
✮✮✮ Dounikos (33/1)
With Jack Kennedy taking the ride, it’s hard to write him off. He won a Grand National Trial at Punchestown last time out off 7lb lower and he’s improving having won 3 of his 10 chases to date. Now an 8 year old, he should give his young rider a good spin. Stamina looks assured and ground conditions look ideal.
✮✮✮ Rathvinden (9/1)
Won the 4 miler at Cheltenham 12 months ago and he also won the Bobbyjo Chase in impression fashion last time out. With Ruby Walsh, bidding for his 3rd success in this race, on board, I expect him to go close with a clear round.
✮ One For Arthur (28/1)
Admittedly he won the race 2 years ago but in 2 runs since, both this season, he’s unseated his rider. Would need a return to these fences to spark a return to form which is unlikely.
✮✮ Rock The Kasbah (20/1)
Could go well for Richard Johnson who is seeking his first win in the race, having won at Cheltenham early this season and finishing 2nd in last season’s Bet365 Chase. However, a 113 day absence is a real concern.
✮✮ Warriors Tale (125/1)
Won the Grand Sefton 3 starts ago but was pulled up in this last year. Not a forlorn hope and there are worse 125/1 shots but it’s hard to see him winning.
✮ Regal Encore (66/1)
8th in this race 2 years ago behind One For Arthur but is 2lb higher and is now approaching the veteran stage. JP McManus holds better claims with Anibale Fly.
✮ Magic Of Light (125/1)
This mare gives Jessica Harrington her first runner in this race. However, he goes beyond 3 miles 1 furlong for the first time and her stamina has to be taken on trust.
✮ A Toi Phil (80/1)
Has had 2 prep races over hurdles but there are massive stamina doubts having never won over further than 2 miles 5 furlongs. Good jumper though.
✮✮✮ Jury Duty (16/1)
This one gives Robbie Power a huge chance to land his 2nd National after winning on Silver Birch 12 years ago. Gave Mala Beach 10lbs and a 6 length beating last time out and is a rapidly improving 8 year old after being outside the first 3 just once in his last 6 starts. Has a good racing weight, will like the ground and should go close granted a clear round.
✮ Noble Endeavor (50/1)
Has only raced twice in 2 years and has shown promise including a respectable run over these fences. However, still has something to prove.
✮ Monbeg Notorious (66/1)
Miles behind Dounikos 2 starts ago. Did show improvement last time out but that was over shorter. Suspicions are that marathon trips don’t suit.
✮✮ Ramses De Teillee (25/1)
Rapidly improving 7 year old who won Welsh National Trial before Christmas before finishing 2nd in the big one itself. Followed that with a 2nd in a trial for these at Haydock. The only thing to put me off is his inexperience. Could be the one for next year.
✮ Tea For Two (50/1)
A first ride in the National for Lizzie Kelly. On the downgrade now and a clear round would be a success for this likeable gelding.
✮ Just A Par (200/1)
Has some good past form but has only raced once in 2 years, has been off the track for 4 months and is now a 12 year old.
✮✮ Step Back (25/1)
Lightly raced 9 year old who won the Bet365 Chase last April but is now 12lb higher. Could go well but the big concern is his inexperience, having only had 6 races over fences.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
✮ Ultragold (66/1)
Loves these fences having won the Topham twice but has never won over 3 miles and it’s hard to see him staying this trip. That said, there’s no horse likely to enjoy the sight of these fences more.
✮ Blow By Blow (150/1)
High class over hurdles but poor over fences. Has only had 7 chase starts to date. finishing a distant last and being pulled up twice in his last 3 starts.
✮ Up For Review (40/1)
Only had 7 chase starts and has never run beyond 3 miles 1 furlong. Inexperience and a lack of stamina is not a good recipe for any horse trying to win a National.
✮✮ Singlefarmpayment (66/1)
Only 1 of his 14 chase starts but is pretty consistent with 5 2nd places amongst those runs. However, he does seem at his best at Cheltenham.
✮✮ Vieux Lion Rouge (50/1)
Has plenty going for him having completed over these fences in every one of his 6 starts. Finished 6th, 7th and 9th in 3 Grand Nationals but he seems like a non-stayer.
✮ Valseur Lido (100/1)
A decent ride for Rachael Blackmore and finished 8th last year. Is down significantly in mark but not sure he stays the trip. Also, his form this time around has been nothing to shout home about.
✮✮✮ Vintage Clouds (14/1)
Not always the best over his fences so that’s a worry here but his form is very impressive. Placed in the Ultima the last 2 years and was 3rd in the Scottish National last year. Is nicely handicapped and should go well.
✮✮✮ General Principle (40/1)
Won the Irish National off 5lb lower last year and has run a couple of good races this year, most notably when 3rd to Dounikos in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown on ground arguably a bit too lively. If it doesn’t dry up too much and he cuts out his tendency to clout a fence, he should run a big race at a big price.
✮ Livelovelaugh (100/1)
Too inexperienced with only 7 chase starts and has yet to win over 3 miles. That’s enough for him to be removed from calculations.
✮✮✮ Walk In The Mill (28/1)
Won the Becher in impressive fashion in December off 7lb lower and looks to hold a massive chance here. Was in this field for this last year before pulling out injured late in the day so hopefully fortune is turned on its head this time around. Has been laid out for this by his trainer, having had 2 spins over hurdles since. He looks overpriced to me at 28/1 which is probably based on the fact he hails from an unfashionable yard. Light weight of 10st4 is another positive.
✮✮ Folsom Blue (100/1)
There are worse 100/1 shots running here. He may be a 12 year old now but was 4th in the Irish equivalent last year and is only 2lbs higher.
✮ Captain Redbeard (66/1)
Unseated in this last year and has finished way down the field in 2 other starts over these fences. Looks nicely handicapped but may prefer a more conventional track.
✮ Bless The Wings (150/1)
Surely he can be dismissed now he’s a 14 year old. That said, he did run a massive race to finish 3rd last year but another year older must have put paid to any chance he may have had.
✮✮ Joe Farrell (20/1)
Won the Scottish National last year and is 7lb higher. Has run twice since and was 2nd last time out off 2lb lower. He ticks many boxes with the one nagging doubt being that he’s only had a 2 week break between his last race and this.
*prices correct at the time of posting
Conclusion
Jury Duty and Walk In The Mill are our two main bets for this, with both having all the attributes to land the big one.
I also like Rathvinden, Vintage Clouds, Dounikos and General Principle, and will back the latter named two at the current odds.
Tips
Back Jury Duty (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 17.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back it here:
PLACED – Back Walk In The Mill (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 29.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back Dounikos (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 29.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back them here:
Back General Principle (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 41.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back it here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2019
