By now, you’ll have digested the trends and read our pinstickers guide to the world’s greatest steeplechase. All that remains is to find out what to back in the 169th running of the Grand National. So, here goes…
We had an original longlist of 11 and there’s nothing to change our view that the winner will come from these, so all our bets revolve around those.
It looks like the going is now soft after some overnight rain but still some good to soft in places. With a relatively dry day forecast, we should have perfect jumping ground and, although those that like to get their toe in are slightly favoured, we couldn’t easily dismiss anything on account of the going.
It’s the biggest race of the season and therefore we are going with our biggest team, backing a few in the hope 2 or 3 are in the mix.
Main Fancies
On the shortlist, we had 5 horses amongst the market principles and we are taking 3 of them. Firstly, what about the 2 we are dismissing? Well, they are last year’s winner Many Clouds and the unlucky loser from that same race, The Druids Nephew.
Many Clouds is seeking to double up and be the first horse since Red Rum to do so, whilst jockey Leighton Aspell is bidding to win a hat trick of Nationals. It will be some weight carrying performance to do it again and this does look to be a much stronger renewal so following up off 5lb higher is a tough task. Admittedly, he is a class act but we cannot get involved at around 9/1 and he is reluctantly passed over.
The Druids Nephew was many people’s unlucky loser last year when falling and going well. Whilst he’s been laid out for this race, he does have something to find with The Last Samuri on their Doncaster running last time out. He has been raised 9lb in the weights since last year so he may have had his chance whilst better ground may just be preferable. On this softer ground, the concern is not whether he will handle it but more about whether he will actually get home. Again, reluctantly, we’ll be leaving this one alone.
This leaves us with 3 and the first of those is the tough horse from the Jonjo O’Neill yard, Holywell. He’s a real spring horse who has a tremendous record from February onwards and will relish the big field he’ll get here. Form in big field races of 20+ runners is 1-1-2 and that’s a stat that must not be underestimated. It may appear that he prefers better ground but we’re not sure that’s the case. Admittedly his record on good to soft is brilliant but he’s been none too shabby itself on soft. He looks to be incredibly well handicapped having been dropped 10lb during the season but that’s no concern; firstly, he’s been plying his trade in much better company than this and he’s probably a stone better off in the spring.
Last year’s 2nd, Saint Are, is our 2nd selection. He absolutely loves these fences having finished 9-3-2-7 and should go well again off just a 3lb higher mark than 12 months ago. His trainer, Tom George, is in sparkling form and, in Paddy Brennan, he has a very accomplished jockey on top. Another spring horse who has never won before February, he wouldn’t want to ground to ease much more but this going should be fine. He also races prominent which is a definite advantage round here and comes into this fresh having only raced 3 times this season. There are no stamina concerns and, with minimal improvement from last year, he’ll be in the mix again.
Our final one of the main fancies is the Irish raider Goonyella. This one will stay all day, of that there is no question. He was 2nd in the Scottish National 12 months ago and we know that he’s been targeted at the race ever since. From a trends perspective, he ticks every single box and he’s been sent over hurdles too this term to protect his mark. That’s something that half of the previous 10 winners have done. He has 2 tries over these fences and has yet to take to them but we’re sure he’ll have been schooled extensively over them with shrewd trainer Jim Dreaper knowing how to ready one. In theory, he loves soft ground but our take on it is that it’s extreme distances are the key; he’s raced 3 times over 30 furlongs or further with a record of 1st of 19 on heavy, 1st of 16 on soft and 2nd of 29 on good. That doesn’t seem like a ground dependent horse but it does confirm that he’ll love the big field he’ll get today.
Back Holywell (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 17.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-5 BOG)
PLACED – Back Goonyella (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-5 BOG)
Back them here:
Back Saint Are (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 Coral (¼ odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
Outsiders
From the original shortlist, we are bypassing Triolo D’Alene as his breathing problem means he really does need genuine good ground. The Romford Pele is also ignored as there are some jumping concerns and whilst we are getting a price that means it may be worth a risk, there are 2 with more solid credentials.
The first of those is the David Pipe trained Soll. Now an 11 year old, the age that has taken 3 of the last 4 Nationals, Soll is one of those that people are marking down as a confirmed mudlark who needs heavy ground. We are not sure that is totally accurate although it is true he needs some cut. He has won 3 times on heavy ground but that’s from 8 tries, whilst he’s 1 from 2 on soft, with the other run being a promising 4th of 17 in the Becher Chase in November. Conor O’Farrell takes the ride and he’s 1 from 1 on the horse. He does have a tough mark to overcome but that is largely offset by a good record over these fences. He finished all 4 starts, including a 7th and 9th in the National. Last year, he was running really well until he broke a blood vessel. Interestingly though, his best run was this year’s Becher, the only time when he’s had his favoured ground. He may not be quick enough to win and he may be in the grip of the handicapper but he should jump well, will definitely stay and will handle the ground. That makes 66/1 a crazy price.
Le Reve is the other fancy from the Lucy Wadham yard. He is running pretty well at present and what we particularly like is his general jumping ability and staying power. It is well documented that he’s better going right handed but he doesn’t jump right handed so may be it’s just coincidence. If he takes to the fences, he has the right credentials to run well. He’s only a 8 year old and this mark is perfectly exploitable, in fact he finished 3rd last time out in the Betbright Chase at Kempton when going for home too early. He likes to be up with the pace and has the blinkers on for the 3rd time which have definitely helped. Again, 66/1 is a big price and he’s no forlorn hope.
Back Soll (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
Back Le Reve (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 Betfair Sportsbook (¼ odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
Side Markets
There’s only side market we want to get involved in and that is the ‘top Paul Nicholls runner’ market. It’s a 6 runner race and features 2 from our original Grand National shortlist, and it’s those 2 we’ll be keeping on side.
The market revolves around the classy Silviniaco Conti but, as we’ve already said, he prefers small fields and is a doubtful stayer, especially on soft ground. At a price of around Evens, he is massively opposable. So what of the other 5?
Wonderful Charm has been absent from the track for over 4 months and he’s yet to win beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs which makes him another likely non-stayer. He also prefers small fields so is easily dismissed. Rocky Creek has raced 3 times over these fences but his chance has now gone as he’s on the downgrade, and we cannot see him being involved. He was pulled up the last time he raced over these obstacles. Black Thunder is another who’s been off the track for more than 8 weeks and is out of form. Yet another who prefers small fields have won all his races in fields of 6 or fewer runners.
That leaves us with 2, the first of these being Unioniste. He fells in this race last year but that was as a 7 year old. He did improve to get over these fences in the Becher in November and, at just 8 years old, he should improve again. He’s also been dropped significantly in the handicap and, although beat by Many Clouds last time out, he ran a good prep. He’ll relish the soft ground and should go well.
The other one to keep on side is Just A Par. The key to this horse could be the reapplication of blinkers. The last time that happened he won the Bet365 Gold Cup 12 months ago. He probably needs to be ridden a little more prominently but we have no concerns on the stamina front.
In summary, these are the 2 that are most likely to complete the course so we don’t really need them to be challenging at the business end. Backing them both looks to be the best option.
WON – Back Unioniste in the top Paul Nicholls runners for a 2/10 stake at 5.50 Coral
Back it here:
Back Just A Par in the top Paul Nicholls runner for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 Skybet
Back it here:
