1000 Guineas
The 2nd classic is run today and it’s the turn of the girls as the 1000 Guineas headlines today’s card at Newmarket. 14 go to post and this looks to have plenty of depth with over half the field capable of landing the prize. There is, however, a strong favourite who hails from the same yard as the winner of the 2000 Guineas.
Rhododendron – A winner of 3 of her 5 races as a 2 year old, including an impressive win in the Group 1 Fillies Mile on this good to firm ground. The only real blot was when she finished 3rd behind 2 of today’s rivals in the Moyglare but the fact she handles the ground and the track, whilst having the best form in the book, make her hard to overlook today. That said, quotes of around 5/4 don’t represent value in a race full of improving types.
Fair Eva – Won the Princess Margaret at Royal Ascot last year before a couple of disappointing defeats in the Lowther and the Rockfel, when odds on. A wide draw isn’t ideal and there are better value bets around.
Daban – Another with a wide draw which is offputting but she does at least come here fit off the back of a win in the Nell Gwyn. She has a tendency to race freely early on which is certainly not good considering her draw and, like Fair Eva, it’s the most convincing of bets.
Winter – From the same yard as Rhododendron but it would be no surprise if she came home in front today. She didn’t do much of note as a 2 year old but has since moved yards and ran a cracker in the Guineas trial at Leopardstown a month ago. She had a horrible draw that day and raced a little too keenly early on but finished well in a close 2nd. She looks to need the extra furlong and, on breeding, the faster ground should suit. Her middle draw should cause no concerns and, of the market leaders, she’s the one to be on.
The rest – Hydrangea has beaten both Rhododendron and Winter but she’s better on easier ground and has less scope for improvement. She will certainly run her race but is opposable whilst Intricately is another that ran in the Moyglare, finishing a close 4th.
Talaayeb is once raced and it’s hard to know what to expect and Poet’s Vanity has work to do to turn the tables on Daban. The rest need to find significant improvement and it’s very likely one of the leading 4 in the market will win this.
Tips
WON – Back Winter (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Ladbrokes BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
On the rest of the card, there’s a decent looking handicap over 1 mile 4 furlongs to kick us off and there’s a bet to be had.
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1.50 Newmarket
13 runners in this but a field where very few have the progressive needed to win here. Big Country has won his last 2 but he’s been put up 9lbs for his last win and is now returned to turf. Frontiersman is the top weight and has been well backed. He has won over course and distance but we go elsewhere in search of the winner.
Mainstream – A winner of 2 of his 9 races but has finished 2nd on each of his last 3 runs. However, his trainer is a master at improving horses from 3 to 4 and that showed with a winner in the 1st race on Saturday here at HQ.
He has improved every single run to date and has been gelded over the winter. On breeding, he looks the type to go onto better things and this is likely to be that 1st step to Group company. He stays this trip well and has a turn of foot but hasn’t always looked an easy ride. With another winter under his belt, he is likely to prove more straightforward this season and that will eke out the necessary improvement. On each of his last 4 runs, he’s had excuses such as not getting a clear run, refusing to settle or the race not run to suit.
He will get the faster pace he needs here and looks a good value bet to give the Queen a winner on 1000 Guineas day.
Tips
PLACED – Back Mainstream (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
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