It is day two of the Dante Festival on Thursday with the main race of the day being the Dante Stakes itself which acts as one of the key indicators towards next month’s Derby. There are a number of other decent races on the card too. We’ve got picks for the big race and a couple of the supporting acts on a busy day.
3.30 York: Dante Stakes
Preview
The Dante is often recognised as the key Derby trail although only Golden Horn has gone on to do the Dante/Derby double in the last 10 years.
6 of the 9 runners are entered in the Derby, including the well touted Roaring Lion who was a leading fancy for both the Guineas & the Derby over the winter after his excellent 2nd to Saxon Warrior in the Racing Post Trophy. However, he was almost 10 lengths back in the Craven before stepping up on that to finish 5th in the Guineas.
Betting
The first bet is that of the horse that narrowly finished in front of him in the Craven in White Mocha. He’s almost 5 times the price of Roaring Lion, despite finishing a head in front last time out, and noises coming from the stable suggest he’ll be even better on his 2nd start of the season now stepped up in trip. He ran well on his reappearance after being held up off what was a slow pace; he’ll be suited by the likely better gallop today. As a 2 year old, he beat subsequent Lingfield Derby Trial winner Knight To Behold on his final start when quickening up well. That form is now beginning to look rock solid & 12/1 makes this one a shade overpriced to me.
The other one I cannot ignore is twice raced Nordic Lights from a top yard. He’s unbeaten & whilst he needs to improve, there’s plenty of scope. He’s won over the distance & there are no stamina doubts on this galloping track. He battled well last time out & those qualities will stand him in good stead here. He’s a big, strong looking individual that will only get better with racing. He has it all to prove on the track but is unexposed & the dark horse of the race.
Tips
Back White Mocha (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Back Nordic Lights (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
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Bets come in 2 other handicaps on the Dante meeting card:
2.20 York
A sprint handicap over the minimum trip where the pace is with the low drawn horses. This is a track that favours those up with the pace on the straight track so I’m siding with the one likely to make the running, coming out of stall 2, and that horse is El Astronaute.
A 5 year old that has won 7 of his 29 career starts, he’s also finished in the first 3 on 8 other occasions. He hails from a yard with over 25% win rate in the last fortnight & he’s a horse in form; he opened up this term finishing a head 2nd to Foolaad who was 2nd in a top York handicap on Wednesday off 3lb lower before finishing 2 lengths 3rd in a similar event at Chester last week, off todays mark. On both occasions, he had the worst of the draw so both runs can be seriously upgraded.
With a better draw on a track that favours his front running style, he should go very close in a competitive handicap.
Tips
WON – Back El Astronaute (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
5.35 York
From a sprint race to a marathon trip over 2 miles, there’s 14 runners with one that catches my eye. I’m a big fan of Chocolate Box, and not only because of the name!
He’s 2 from 6 on the sand but has yet to win on turf, however I expect that will change today. He’s looked a different horse since being stepped up to 2 miles and won in good style on his reappearance when drawing 3 lengths clear at Chelmsford off a mark of 80 despite pulling hard earlier. He then finished 4th over the same trip when the pace again was a slow one & didn’t suit the selection. That was off a revised mark and, to me, it still looks well within range especially if he gets a stronger pace to chase on a more galloping track.
He’s unexposed on turf & pedigree strongly suggests he’ll be suited by fast ground. 15/2 looks a big price.
Tips
PLACED – Back Chocolate Box (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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