4.50 Meydan: Dubai World Cup
Preview
It’s the 25th running of the 2nd richest race on the global calendar, the Dubai World Cup, and this does not look to be the strongest renewal. With 14 going to post over a mile and a quarter on dirt where prominent types are favoured & no obvious trailblazer, it may pay to follow the draw and side with those drawn low. There are a few interesting trends that shouldn’t be ignored in this field, with 7 of the last 10 winners having won at the track previously, 9 of those having won over the distance previously &, interestingly, 7 having failed to win their most recent start.
Favourites
Mystic Guide is an uneasy favourite from the yard of Michael Stidham & whilst he’s improving, he isn’t in the same league of past challengers from the US & can be taken at odds of around 9/4. By contrast, Jesus’ Team is more likely from the US as he’s been 2nd to the excellent Knicks Go on 2 of his last 3 starts, in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup & Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. The worry about him is the trip & this extra furlong doesn’t look the most obvious move. Former Tom Dascombe trained Great Scot has been well backed for this & has the inside draw plus the assistance of Frankie Dettori. He’s been in good form & ran well at his local track in the Saudi Cup but this is his first start here & again there are stamina doubts.
Contenders
Of the local trained runners, Salute The Soldier holds the key to the race although he’s not quite made the cut. He won a Group 1 on Super Saturday 3 weeks ago, following up a win & a place in Group 2s before that. That last win was from the front but his wide draw in 11 just puts me off a little so he’s reluctantly passed over. Instead, we’re taking 2 that have form lines with him at each way prices.
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Betting
Military Law was formerly trained by John Gosden but since coming to the UAE, he’s been a revelation. He split Benbatl & Gronowski on his first start here last year, either of those 2 rivals would probably be favourite in this field, & then ran 2nd again in a Group 1 where the winner skipped the field with an all the way win under a Barzalona masterclass. On his reappearance this term, he won a Group 2 over a mile picking up well & putting the race to bed early in the straight, never looking like being caught & prevailing by over a length. Salute The Soldier was over 2 lengths back in 3rd so given he’s gone on to win twice since, the form looks very solid indeed. The selection disappointed last time but that was in the Saudi Cup where not many got into it & it’s easy to forgive him that run. Fitting the trends & draw nicely in 5, we fully expect him to be in the shake up.
At a bigger price, we want to keep Hypothetical on side too. He’s progressed race to race this year, finishing 2nd in a Group 3 three starts ago before winning a handicap off a mark of 97. Stepped up to Group 1 next time, he was 3rd in the last race Salute The Soldier won, staying on well from behind the leader & never managing to reel him in. That was his first run at the trip since moving to the UAE & he looked better for it. Whilst it’s not obvious he’ll turn the tables with the winner, he has a much better draw in 2 & with Barzalona on board (who has a record of 1-1-2 on the horse), it would be no surprise to see him bid to make all against the favoured rail. At almost double the price of the horse that beat him last time out, he looks a good value each way bet.
Tips
Back Military Law (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 9.00 Betfair (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
PLACED – Back Hypothetical (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 15.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-5)
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