The flat season began in Ireland last weekend and as we move into April it is the turn of the UK to follow suit. As ever the curtain raiser in the UK comes from Doncaster where the Lincoln Handicap is the headline on a good first card.
That isn’t the only race on the cad which appeals from a betting point of view though. There is also the Spring Mile and having gone in depth on both races we have found two selections in the latter and one in the big race.
2.25 Doncaster
Preview
The first big field handicap of the season in the UK is the Spring Mile with a maximum field of 22. This is the one that will give us clues to the big race, the Lincoln, to be run an hour later but it’s often not the draw that gives us the clues but more so track position. On the likely ground, it’s probable that mid to high drawn runners will be favoured and that’s emphasised as it appears that’s where the pace is. It’s an open race and I’m taking 2 against the field.
Betting
Last year’s race was an odd one as there was a ridiculously small field of 8 with Arthur’s Realm running out the winner. I think he has a great chance of following up off an 8lb higher mark and he’s our first bet. Drawn highest of all in 22, it’s hard to be sure whether that’s a benefit or not but I’m more confident than I would be if he were drawn low. His most notable form later that season came when 3rd over course & distance in a handicap won by leading Lincoln fancies, Atrium and Empirestateofmind. That was on soft ground and interestingly he’s 1lb lower here today. He ran a similarly good race previous to that when again just behind Empirestateofmind of rain softened ground again, nudged out by a head. He’s already had a pipe opener on the sand which should have put him spot on for this and I fancy him to go close in a repeat bid on the opening day of the UK turf flat season.
Tropez Power is another fit from the all weather and in his current form, he’s hard to write off. Most of his form is on an artificial surface but he’s bred to be suited by this soft surface, being out of Motivator. Form wise, it’s gone up a notch or two since moving to his current yard with 5 runs on the all weather seeing form figures of 1-3-2-1-2 and a mark going from 81 to the low-90’s. He gets in here off 90 and if as good on this surface, he appears to be very well handicapped. He’s a really strong travelling sort, something I find to be of benefit on this sort of ground, and I’m hoping he travels just as sweetly in this, rewarding punters at a very nice price indeed.
Tips
Back Arthur’s Realm (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
Back Tropez Power (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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3.35 Doncaster
Preview
The Lincoln is always a great race but is becoming increasingly difficult to find a value bet with unexposed, progressive 4 years old the way that are ahead of their mark is often the way to go. The market leaders all fit that profile with the Crisfords saddling favourite Awaal a winner of 2 of his 4 career starts, most notably winning a handicap on heavy ground last back end. William Haggas saddles the second favourite and is bidding to land his second Lincoln of the week having had the winner of the Irish equivalent 7 days ago. Al Mubhir is another who won his most recent start, that also on heavy, and he should also be involved at the business end. Majestic, Jimi Hendrix and Baradar are others that could go very well too but I’m putting my eggs in a single basket here.
Betting
Atrium is a horse I like a lot and he has a nice draw in 13, which is very much in and around the pace. He came into his own at the tail end of last season when he first won a straight track handicap at Newbury, coming through comfortably by well over a length at the line, but following up here on soft ground when again winning with more in hand than the winning distance of half a length suggests. Both times he’s been raised just 4lbs in the handicap and I feel there’s a lot more to come. His trainer tried to get him in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day but he was balloted out and was therefore put away for the winter with this race in mind. Connections note that his preparation has gone better than expected, the ground is in his favour and with a straight track handicap record on good or softer reading 1-1-1, he looks the one to side with in a typically difficult puzzle.
Tips
Back Atrium (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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