The horse racing season continues this week with one of the headline meetings of the year taking place at York as the Knavesmire welcomes some of the best horses in racing for a four-day festival of top class action.
The feature race on the opening day of the meeting is the Juddmonte International, a race which has attracted a stellar line up. We have one pick for that one and we’ll also look to get off to a decent start for the week in the opening race.
1.50 York
Preview
You know it’s almost the Ebor on the Knavesmire when you kick off the week with a maximum field of 22 on the straight course for an ultra competitive 5 & a half furlong sprint. Bookies go 11/2 the field with Holkham Bay & Pilgrim heading the markets. Both have won their last 2 so come here in top form but are 14lb & 19lb respectively higher than for the first of those runs. Shagraan is interesting. He’d been running well in decent races before winning last time out at Goodwood but the thing I’m drawn to is his Group 1 entry next month in the Flying Five at the Curragh. Connections must think highly of him but I’d rather back something on the strength of what they’ve shown on the track & I’m concerned by his 5lb rise following his last time out victory.
Betting
Jm Jungle is the one I’m keeping on side. Last year, his York handicap form read 2/18 off 78, 3/20 off 92 (in this race) & 4/19 off 93. Today, he gets in off a mark of just 88 so taking those last 2 runs literally, he would look a good thing here. However, his form this year hasn’t been quite as good after a spell in Bahrain. 4th of 15 at Musselburgh on his first run was creditable before 2 disappointing efforts. However, that saw his mark drop below 90 for the first time since the summer of last year & he responded with 2 improved showings, the first when 4th of 16 in the Rockingham over in Ireland & then 5th of 12 at Glorious Goodwood. This track, the extra half furlong, a 1lb ease in mark & first time this season on ground faster than good should all play to his strengths & that, coupled with a decent looking draw, may well see him enter the winners enclosure for the first time in just over a year.
Tips
Back Jm Jungle (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-6)
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3.35 York
Preview
The big race of the opening day is the mile & a quarter Group 1 Juddmonte International & this looks to have the makings of a classic. Not only do we have the extremely talented Derby winner in City Of Troy but we also have a biggish field of 13 including 2 well fancied French raiders & one that’s made the trip from Japan. City of Troy is a short priced favourite, trading just marginally above even money which is unsurprising given his Derby success & follow up in the Eclipse. That certainly put him on the right road after his terrible showing in the 2000 Guineas but that run will always be at the back of my mind so I just cannot bring myself to back him at the prices. Saying that, if he turns up in his Derby form, he will win. Ambiente Friendly, the colt that chased him home at Epsom, is next in the market, but I was disappointed with his run in the Irish Derby when coming home in 3rd as beaten favourite. The step back in trip will suit but on past form, you have to wonder whether courses like Epsom & Lingfield suit better. Zarakem, one of the French horses, was 2nd to Auguste Rodin at Royal Ascot but he looked to have needed the mile & a half trip so I wonder whether the line will come too soon for him.
Betting
I went back & forth with both Alflaila & Bluestocking. The former has a terrific record at York & whilst I see him running well, he looks just below the top level whilst the latter is ultra consistent & should be challenging but, unless there’s any rain, I think the ground might just be a bit too quick for him to be seen at his absolute peak. I’ve therefore settled on the other French runner in Calandagan. A 3 year old that’s been seen just 6 times, winning 4 times. Whilst he’s yet to win at the top level, he’s progressed through the ranks in style taking each step up in his stride. After finishing 2nd on seasonal reappearance on bottomless ground in a Listed race, he’s since won 3 at Group level, the first 2 at Group 3 in his homeland. He then came over for the Group 2 King Edward VII at Royal Ascot where he was an 11/2 shot & faced fast ground for the first time. The ground nor the step up in class phased him as he was one of the most visibly impressive winners of the week, quickening up in fine style down the outside to bound clear by 6 lengths. He’s kept on improving, recording higher RPRs run by run & his trainer knows the time of day so wouldn’t be sending him over unless he truly believed he was something special. Proven on the ground, happy over the trip & with this galloping course in his favour, he’s the most solid each way alternative to the favourite & is the one that probably has the most untapped potential.
Tips
Back Calandagan (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 Skybet (⅕ odds 1-4)
