It is the final day of the Ebor Festival on Saturday and it might be that the best has been saved for last at York as we have an excellent card to round off what has been a really good week of racing on the Knavesmire.
The feature race on Saturday is the Ebor handicap itself and we are tackling that as a betting proposition and then there is another bet that we like on the undercard immediately after the big one to round off the week.
3.35 York
Preview
The big race of the week, the Ebor, is upon us & as ever, it’s fiercely competitive & has attracted a field of 20. Epic Poet is currently heading the mark for the O’Meara yard & he’s a solid handicapper who’s run well the last twice without winning so I’m put off by a rise in mark. Queenstown is lightly raced who, typical of an O’Brien horse, has progressed from maiden company into pattern company. He’s twice finished second to Kyprios, my worry being whether the rough nature of this race will play to his strengths. Magical Zoe & Hipop De Loire add to a strong Irish challenge whilst Sea King & Burdett Road should both run their races for the home team.
Betting
However, this is so open that it’s worth siding with one at a big price & that comes in the shape of Kihavah. A horse with a near 20% win rate over both flat & jumps, he’s a 7 year old who cannot be easily written off. Last summer, he won 4 on the bounce, 3 of those on the flat, which saw his mark rise from the low 80’s to the high 90’s. He’s yet to defy his new mark but has run some good enough races in defeat. He was 2nd of 13 here in the Jorvik Handicap off 2lb higher & his last run on the flat wasn’t without promise over an inadequate trip on ground that might have been a bit slow for him. His last run was over hurdles & he ran a stormer at Market Rasen finishing 2nd of 17. He’s won both times he’s reverted to the flat from hurdles in the last 2 years & I’m hoping today’s the day he makes it 3 from 3. York is a track that suits with 3 wins from 7 starts & he has a nice enough draw in 8. The original plan was to target this race a year ago but things didn’t go his way & he never got his chance. A year on, let’s hope he finally hits the intended target at a very juicy price.
Tips
Back Kihavah (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-6)
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4.10 York
Preview
A big field & a straight track sprint over 6 furlongs is where my second selection comes from. We’ve seen over the first few days that a low draw has been favoured & whilst York has a habit of throwing up different biases on different days, I’ve no intention of deserting the low drawn runners here. The first 4 in the market are all drawn low so the market has clearly cottoned on to the bias, with Elmonjed the current favourite. A narrow win last time out has seen his mark rise by just 2lbs & he should be on the premises. Dare To Hope won the Great St Wilfrid last week but this is much tougher off a 6lb higher mark whilst Summerghand may not have the race run to suit with not a load of pace in the race. I did like Cover Up & he was very nearly the bet but I wonder whether he might be better over the minimum trip.
Betting
Two Tribes is the one for me here. He’s drawn in 4 & despite only winning 1 of his 10 races, he has finished 2nd on 5 occasions so a change of luck is due. He was 2nd on reappearance on Newmarket, losing out only to a race fit rival, before a below par run at Royal Ascot over the minimum trip. That said, even then, he was 3rd of 8 in his group so perhaps better than first appears. His last runs have both seen run well, finishing 4th & 5th respectively but not more than a length & a half behind the winner. He finished strongly at Newmarket after breaking slowly & then ran a cracker back at Ascot when he looked like the step back in trip to today’s 6 furlongs might suit. The handicapper has relented a little, now back down to a mark of 90 & hopefully that will make the difference in an open race.
Tips
Back Two Tribes (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Boylesports (⅕ odds 1-5)
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