Some decent flat racing on show on Friday, especially at Sandown where there are three Group races as part of a seven race card. We’re taking a couple in one of those Group races as well as a low grade handicap up at Doncaster for our bets.
3.35 Sandown
Preview
Just 8 runners for the Bet365 Mile, a Group 2 for 4 year olds & upwards. We have a very warm favourite in the shape of the easy Lincoln winner, Addeybb, & he’s certainly hard to ignore off the back of that run. As impressive as he was there, he has yet to mix it in this company & is sure to be a better horse on really soft ground. Whilst the rain is due, there’s a question whether the ground will be deep enough so I’d rather look elsewhere for an each way bet.
Last year’s winner Sovereign Debt & the Sussex winner, Here Comes When, both have sound claims but are approaching the veteran stage & may just be vulnerable to more progressive types. One of those is Stormy Antarctic who is another that needs proper soft ground.
Main Bet
In the hope that the rain doesn’t come down as hard as the favourites would like, I’m taking a couple as I can’t really find a valid reason to only take one. Aljazzi is the main fancy & is the only girl in the field but I fancy she could serve it up to the boys here. Now a 5 year old, she’s a winner of 4 of her 12 races including a Group 3 on her only start over course & distance. That day, she was held up in rear before quickening in style to land the spoils by 3 lengths.
Previous to that run last term, she’d landed a Listed race on the all-weather on her first start back, before finishing 5th in the Dahlia where she didn’t stay the extra furlong & then she ran a cracker at Royal Ascot in finishing 2nd behind Qemah in the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge. Subsequent to her Sandown win, she was midfield in both the Group 1 Sun Chariot & a Group 2 over in the US at Del Mar.
However, what is interesting is her form after a break. Other than her debut win, her other 3 wins have come after a break of at least 73 days proving her need to be fresh. In fact, there’s only one other time where she’d been off the track that long & she was 4th in a Group 3 (that was only her 2nd ever run). It seems like she’s goes on any ground & what’s also good to know is that her form over this trip outside of Group 1 company reads 1-1-2-1-7, with that last run being outside of the UK (did she travel over well?).
Outsider
The 2nd selection is a little more speculative but there’s plenty to believe Khafoo Shememi will go well. A winner of 4 of his 12 career starts & that includes both starts over course & distance. Both of those wins were at Listed level but he’s a horse on the upgrade & it would be no surprise to see him progress into a Group performer this year.
He’s yet to encounter soft ground but his breeding suggests he will improve for it & his best form has come on good ground, rather than firm, & on standard to slow all weather. He’s been keep fit over in Meydan & the return to smaller fields will suit this prominent type.
The jockey booking is significant, he’s 2 from 4 on the horse (2 from 2 over this distance) & on both occasions, he made all. With only 1 possible other front runner in the field, he may just be able to dictate the tempo & he’s got the best in the business doing the steering. Form is solid enough & his price is a good 5 or 6 points higher than I think it should be.
Tips
PLACED – Back Aljazzi (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Back Khafoo Shememi (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
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2.15 Doncaster
Preview
An average looking Class 5 handicap over 7 furlongs with 14 runners. The going is likely to be soft. Call Out Loud was 2nd off this mark in this grade last time out but he’s no certainty to improve on that effort, whilst Kirkham has been running well but has been raised in mark following a defeat & has a poor strike rate.
Betting
The one I like is Warriors Spirit. He’s been sold for a lowly fee over the winter & moved stables from a top southern yard to a top northern yard that has a knack of improving horses. He’s only raced 8 times but has won only once but, to me, there’s plenty to recommend him.
He’s off a mark of just 70 & with the jockey’s claim of 7lb, it is effectively a mark of 63. Admittedly last year his form was poor but he had some excuses &, to be frank, the handicapper was in charge. His last 3 runs were poor but I’m putting 2 of those down to the all-weather whilst a slow start put paid to his chances in the other.
Let’s look at early form; as a 2 year old, he won a maiden at Newbury recording a RPR of 81 when beating the now 114-rated Crystal Ocean & 103-rated On To Victory, the 3 of them coming clear by almost 3 lengths. If he was anywhere near that form, he’d win this by half the track. He reappeared last year in a Class 2, back at Newbury, and ran ok in midfield off 81. He was noted as “running better than his finishing position suggests”. He was then favourite for 2 Class 4 handicaps but again had excuses; first up, he didn’t stay the extra furlong & then he was severely hampered at Haydock.
Clearly well thought of by his former yard, it just never happened for him but he’s surely better than this lot & provided his new yard can revitalise him, I expect him to go very close here.
Tips
Back Warriors Spirit (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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