The opening day of the 3-day Aintree meeting, culminating in the Crabbies Grand National on Saturday. Before that, we have high quality racing with several of the big winners at Cheltenham here in a bid to double up.
Thursday’s racing is select but extremely competitive and there’s not a lot of value around. There is, however, 2 bets we are happy to recommend.
1.40 Aintree
Being a 2 mile 4 furlong novice chase, we normally see a field full of Cheltenham raiders that either ran in the JLT or are stepping up in trip from the 2 mile Arkle.
This is probably the most difficult race on the card with Arzal, Garde La Victoire, L’Ami Serge and Sizing John all in opposition. There’ll be plenty of betting opportunities to come so it’s a race to sit back and enjoy.
If pushed, Arzal would be the narrow preference.
2.15 Aintree
The Juvenile Hurdle has been won 11 times this century by a horse that contested the Triumph Hurdle and this season’s 1-2-3 all line up, with Ivanovich Gorbatov the warm favourite. The other Cheltenham race to focus on is the Fred Winter and the 1-2 come here too, confirming the quality of the line up once again.
The form of the Fred Winter though is questionable; it certainly wasn’t a vintage renewal and we’d be keen to take on Diego Du Charmil and Romain De Senam. This race surely revolves around the Triumph Hurdle and that 1-2-3 make up the top 3 in the betting as well as being the 3 highest rated.
Ivanovich Gorbatov did us a big favour at Cheltenham but he’s opposable here. The key to him is good ground and it is unlikely he’ll get that here. At best, we’ll have good to soft but, with the rain around, we’re expecting soft ground come race time. He’s no 5/4 shot on that sort of going and we’ll leave him alone today.
Apples Jade was 2nd in the Triumph and is 2nd favourite here. She’s beat Footpad twice and has her preferred ground so is not easily dismissed. We feel she had the run of the race at Cheltenham and may need things to pan out as well this time which may not be the case in this smaller field. The other concern is whether this very lightly raced mare will struggle with 2 races in under a month, having had at least a 3 month rest in between all races to date.
We prefer the chances of the other Willie Mullins runner, Footpad. Ruby Walsh again takes the ride and he’ll be keen to make amends for a 3rd place in the Triumph. That day, he was held up in last and did well to make up so much ground once the pace quickened. Whilst he was never getting to the front 2, he certainly wasn’t given a hard time once beaten. He is likely to be a different proposition on this softer ground and looks the each way value. Ruby will hold him up again but, in this smaller field, he’ll be closer to the pace. We’ve already seen him beat the favourite on poor ground and conditions look to be more much more in his favour today.
Back Footpad (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 6.50 Coral (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
2.50 Aintree
An excellent race in prospect for the Betfair Bowl with Cue Card bidding to make amends for his fall in the Gold Cup. He takes on the Gold Cup 2nd in Djakadam and it appears to be between those 2 for the honours.
Don Poli also lines up but, on this easier track over a shorter trip, we can’t see him being quick enough. If anything, he’d need another couple of miles to get close to Cue Card here.
Of the rest, only Saphir Du Rheu has any real appeal and might run into a place. A watching brief is advised.
3.25 Aintree
The first 4 from the Champion Hurdle line up and what a race we have in prospect. There’s only 6 going to post but it still looks a cracker.
Annie Power looks all over the winner with the extra half mile in her favour whilst Nichols Canyon is another to be suited by the longer trip so could be the one for the forecast.
At a big price, Camping Ground might be seen in a better light and would have been an each way bet if bookies were paying 3 places and the rain had arrived earlier.
4.05 & 4.40 Aintree
The Foxhunters looks an impossible puzzle whilst the latter handicap chase has the look of one of the most competitive handicaps of the season. The best advice we can give here is to keep your money in your pocket.
5.15 Aintree
The last race on the card in the mares’ flat race and the favourite is the Mullins trained Augusta Kate who was last seen in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. She finished 7th that day but is now back against her own sex so her chances should be increased. That said, she had a tough race that day and this could come too early.
La Bague Au Roi is the favourite having won all 3 of her starts and justifiably so. The worry about taking 2/1 on her is that soft ground is a massive unknown, that’s enough to lead us elsewhere. Interestingly, we’ve seen only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years and 4 of the last 4 winners have been priced at 20/1 upwards.
Our selection for this race is My Khaleesi at a tasty price of 16/1. She’s trained by Alan King who excels with his youngsters and that’s highlighted by the fact he’s won 2 of the 11 runnings of this race. What’s more, he’s also trained the runner up 4 times.
My Khaleesi has raced twice, finishing runner up first time out before winning on her most recent start. Both of those runs were on softish ground so she should be suited by the conditions. Last time out, she travelled really well for the most part and looked the winner a long way out. She was however made to battle and stayed on well, looking a battler in the process. As the ground is softer than many of these will appreciate and we’re now running over an extra furlong, those battling / staying qualities will be crucial.
There are plenty of viable alternatives but, from a top yard who had an impressive bumper winner at Haydock over a week ago, we’re prepared to take a chance on Wayne Hutchinson’s mount.
Back My Khaleesi (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
