Day 2 of the Aintree Grand National meeting and it looks a card to get stuck into from a betting perspective, especially in the 2 big handicaps. There are some fancy prices around and we’ll be going to war double handed in both races, whilst not forgetting there’s racing on elsewhere, so we head to Leicester for a bet on the flat too.
1.40 Aintree
A 22 runner handicap hurdle over 2 miles 4 furlongs and it’s an open event, going 7/1 the field. Last year’s winner Theinval shoulders top weight but he’s not as well handicapped this time around and will struggle to follow up.
The 2 key trials for this have both been Cheltenham races; the County Hurdle (2 miles 1 furlong) and the Coral Cup (2 miles 5 furlongs) and we’re taking one from each of those races.
Starchitect is our main bet, from the Pipe yard, and he comes here off the back of a 5th in the County Hurdle. Up until this season, he was trained by Donald McCain who described him “as good a juvenile as I have schooled at home” after winning a 4 runner race 18 months ago on his hurdling debut.
He has raced just 8 times over the smaller obstacles, winning twice and finishing runner up 3 times, and he has improved race to race. Starchitect has just 2 starts to his name this season but they’ve been pretty impressive and he probably deserves to record his first victory of the season on his 3rd start. His 1st start saw him finish runner up to Agrapart in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, the richest handicap hurdle run in Europe. That was on very soft ground, probably too soft, and he would have finished closer had he not clouted the last. The way he kept on to the line suggests this longer trip will suit.
At Cheltenham, he finished 5th of 26 behind Superb Story and whilst he was never nearer, 6.5 lengths back, he was noted staying on in taking style, despite being denied a clear run entering the home straight. This again suggests he will get this trip, especially on a much easier track. The ground should hold no concerns and off the same mark as at Cheltenham, he is expected to run a very big race.
Our 2nd selection trades much bigger at 22/1 in the form of John Ferguson’s 1st string, Qewy. He is another lightly raced horse, with just 6 hurdle runs under his belt. He finished 5th in last year’s Supreme, behind Douvan, before running a creditable 3rd in a grade 2 novice hurdle here 12 months ago. This year, he started off in 2 novice chases without really shining but has improved since coming back over hurdles.
He finished 2nd at Doncaster, narrowly going down in a prolonged battle to the line, off 1lb lower than today but running an eyecatching race in the Coral Cup when 11 of 26 but just 5 lengths down at the finish. Blazer, who reopposes here and is vying for favouritism, finished in front of Qewy that day but that doesn’t really tell the story. Our horse travelled strongly throughout the race and his stamina only gave way before the last. As they approached the final fence, he was bang there so this slightly shorter trip and easier track should put less emphasis on stamina and that’s a massive plus. His odds of 22/1 are surely reflective of his finishing position rather than how he actually ran. The going is likely to be good to soft and that is probably ideal so he’s worthy of an each way investment.
PLACED – Back Starchitect (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
Back Qewy (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 23.00 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
2.15 Aintree
This should be a straight matchup between Buveur D’Air and Limini, with preference for the latter who is unbeaten in 3, hails from the all-conquering Mullins yard and looks to have bags of potential.
2.50 Aintree
Plenty of Cheltenham form on show with 3 winners from the Festival and 1 runner up. Ballyalton, Blacklion, Native River and Un Temps Pour Tout all arrive in good heart and it’s a race for leaving well alone.
3.25 Aintree
Vautour is 1/4 shout and that says just about everything. Sit back and enjoy!
4.05 Aintree
Our first look at the National fences as we have the Topham Chase. This is a race over just 2 mile 5 furlongs but it’ll warm the appetite for the big race 24 hours later. Normally, we’re looking for a horse that has raced a few times in the current season, is looking well handicapped and should race prominently throughout. Lighter weights normally hold sway and those with experience over the fences are normally worthy of a closer look.
We’ve gone with 2 in this but both at very backable each way prices. The first one of those is Dromnea, from the in form Mouse Morris yard. The trainer has had 3 winners (2 at 16/1, 1 at 9/4) and a further placed horse (20/1) from his last 5 runners and that, in itself, is almost enough to recommend this bet. He looks well handicapped off 134, carrying just 10st3lbs. He’s run over trips too far the last 3 times so the step back in trip will be in his favour and his form over trips shorter of 3 miles over fences is eyecatching; 3-3-1-1-3-7-3-2. He will appreciate the soft going although he doesn’t really want bottomless ground and his prominent racing style will suit the shape of the race. To date, he’s jumped fences well and all looks in place for a big run at a tasty price.
Pass The Hat is our 2nd selection, and is our 2nd Irish raider to be tipped up in this. The very shrewd Arthur Moore is the trainer and he’ll be looking to gain compensation for Dandridge’s defeat yesterday. He has an interesting profile having mixed hurdles with fences this season but that has all the hallmarks of a horse protecting his handicap mark ready for a tilt at a big prize. That big prize looks like it’s the Topham. He’s well judged on his 2nd in the 2014 Kerry National off this sort of mark and since then, he’s run some good races off marks higher than today’s. His 5 runs this season have seen him run well twice over hurdles and, in his 3 chase runs, he’s been brought down, finished 2nd off a 3lb higher mark and an excellent 4th in the Skybet at Doncaster over a trip a shade too far. Dropped 2lb for that run, he looks ready to go close especially as he goes well fresh.
Back Dromnea (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
Back Pass The Hat (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 Coral (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
4.40 Aintree
This looks incredibly competitive so we’re leaving it alone but Ballydine would be the one if pushed for a selection. We like his chances but feel odds of 5/1 are a little too short.
5.15 Aintree
The market is dominated by the first few home in the Champion Bumper at the Festival. However, recent form tells us we want a lightly raced horse that bypassed that race but it appears we have a lack of those in this year’s race. Let’s leave this one alone too and head over to Leicester for our final bet.
Away from Aintree…
5.25 Leicester
A 7 furlong Class 4 handicap on heavy ground, and we’re looking for a horse that either goes well fresh or is fit from the all-weather, likes the going and will get the trip.
The market is tight with 6 of the 9 runners currently trading in single figures but there appears to be a standout candidate in current favourite, Apache Storm. The excellent Silvestre De Sousa takes over from Andrew Mullen on the Mick Appleby trained horse and that’s a tip in itself, especially given De Sousa’s record when riding for this yard.
She’s yet to win on turf and hasn’t run over this far on turf either but she’s out of Pivotal, a massive soft ground pointer, and won last time out on the sand on her first try at this trip. She didn’t look to be stopping that day and it is thought that this trip, and further, will bring out even more improvement. She’s certainly bred to get every yard.
Whilst she’s raised 3lb for that run on the all-weather, it is not insurmountable given this race is a drop in class from that run, and given her previous turf form on easy ground off marks higher than this. She’s raced 3 times on softish ground on turf, finishing 3-2-2. The one handicap amongst those, the middle run, was when racing off a mark off 88 (3lb higher than today). She has also trotted up on slow ground at Southwell so the liking for easy going is confirmed.
4 of the other 5 trading under 10/1 are making their seasonal reappearance whilst the other is stepping up in grade and doesn’t look to be progressive enough the handle it.
Back Apache Storm for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 Bet365 (BOG)
Back it here:
