Another week of racing begins on Monday and it does so with the return of action over in Ireland to compliment the meetings that are taking place in England as well. As the UK did last week, Irish racing returns with a single meeting behind closed doors, with the action coming at Naas.
The UK action on Monday comes from Chelmsford City, Lingfield and Haydock and we have one bet in the latter meeting. We have also scoured the card in Ireland and have picked out a couple of fancies at Naas to tuck into.
3.50 Haydock
Preview
Whilst this handicap is officially a Class 4, its 0-78 rating suggests it’s not much more than a glorified Class 5 so it might not take that much winning. 7 furlongs is the trip and there are 12 runners expected to go to post.
The 2 at the top of the market are Saisons D’Or and Zip. The former was runner up to Little Jo at Newcastle last week over a mile and gets in here off the same mark but looked to be suited by the race conditions in that all weather race and has a wide draw here. Zip won on heavy at the end of last term & is just 2lbs higher but needs a lot more rain to be considered a good bet.
Betting
At a longer price, I’m prepared to take a chance on top weight Roundhay Park. This 5 year old gelding is having his first run since wind surgery and tackles 7 furlongs for the first time but there are reasons to suggest this new trip will suit. Dam’s sire Daylami was a high class middle distance horse so he’s likely to get the trip and recent runs suggest the same. All 4 of his career wins have been at 5 furlongs but last year, he ran a trip of good races over 6 furlongs in the height of summer, all of much higher marks.
His form then tailed off when reverting to the minimum trip. Specifically, he was a head 2nd here off a mark of 83 a year ago when running on really well, suggesting another furlong would be in his favour. He had 12 runs last year but, assuming 5 furlongs is too sharp & Class 3 is a class too high, he only had 2 runs finishing 3rd off 85 and 2nd off 83. His mark today is just 78 and in races up to 0-80, he’s had just 1, winning that start as a 2 year old off a mark off 74 (winning as easy as you like.). He won first time up as a 3 year old so there are unlikely to be fitness issues & at the price is a decent each way bet.
Tips
Back Roundhay Park (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 15.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (1/5 odds 1-4)
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4.00 Naas
Preview
It’s the first day back in Ireland and this sees 17 runners over 6 furlongs for Division 1 of this 50-75 rated handicap.
There are fancied runners drawn across the track with current favourite Gee Rex coming out of stall 1. He was a decent 2 year old and his mark has fallen rapidly. He’s now at a good yard but is winless in 15 career starts so his price looks too short.
Betting
Most of the pace is in the high stalls with possible front runners in stalls 11, 14 and 15 which helps our selection Scorching Heat, out of stall 13. He pulled too hard last time over course & distance but this much stronger pace is a massive plus. Before coming to Ireland, he was a very good 3 year old in the UK, winning 2 handicaps & placing in his other 4 from 6 starts. The 2 wins came off marks of 76 & 84 and he’s racing off 74 today.
After a long break, he ran 6 times late last year with his 1 length 7th of 23 at the Curragh the pick. That day, he was rated 11lbs higher and the race had horses rated up to 92 in it. Furthermore the run could be upgraded as the middle draw didn’t help. He showed nothing thereafter but very soft ground didn’t help. He should get a good tow in this, is back on better ground and is markedly down in class. With Colin Keane, a regular rider for this yard, riding this horse for the first time, a big run is surely expected.
Tips
PLACED – Back Scorching Heat (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 Betfair BOG (1/5 odds 1-5)
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4.30 Naas
Preview
Division 2 of the above handicap sees another 17 runners and again we have a warm favourite with Aiden O’Brien saddling Yale who has only won a maiden. He recorded a RPR of 74 and has a mark of 74 today and looks worth taking on at under 2/1.
Betting
The fancied runners & most of the pace is drawn middle to high so that’s the place to concentrate and the selection is Twenty Minutes, drawn in 13. He’s a hold up horse and should get a fast pace to aim at, he’s also a winner over this course & distance, winning off a mark of 67 a year ago. He’s 8lb higher today. In his 9 winless runs since, he’s had excuses in 6 of those as 5 furlongs was too sharp, all weather is not his surface and he was around 25lbs wrong in a conditions race.
His other 3 races were at the Curragh in much better events; he was a head 2nd of 72 (top rated horse was 90) & then travelled well off a revised mark of 79 but soft ground took its toll late on when fading. His last run there was off an even higher mark of 83 (top rated was 105) and he finished a very creditable 9th of 24. This is a massive drop in class, a big drop in mark and with a good 5lb claimer on top, he must surely go close given a clear run.
Tips
Back Twenty Minutes (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 Betfred BOG (1/5 odds 1-5)
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