Horse Racing – Kempton Wednesday 1st July Tips and Betting Preview

The build up to a big weekend of racing is really beginning to intensify but before we get to those fantastic Saturday and Sunday cards, there are meetings to navigate through the week, beginning with five on Wednesday.

In the UK they race at Musselburgh and Southwell in the afternoon and Kempton in the evening while over in Ireland there is an afternoon meeting at Tipperary before the flat racing resumes in the evening at Leopardstown. We’ve scoured the cards and there is one bet we like.

7.15 Kempton

Preview

12 go to post for a Class 3 handicap over a mile and a half with Gosden saddling the favourite in Good Tidings.  He has yet to win a handicap in 5 tries but has gone up 6lbs in the process & unseated last time out after clipping heels.  He’s not one for me at the current odds.

Mackaar is a decent type but is another yet to win a handicap.  The return to the all weather is in his favour and he should go close.  Kitabaat is back on his last winning mark but has been poor last twice and, with the price having gone a while ago, I’ll happily pass on him too.


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Betting

Having drifted in the market, Just The Man looks a good value bet.   On reappearance last year, he was 3rd in a novice event where the front 4 pulled clear & the other 3 are now rated 110, 104 & 97.  That suggests our horse is well handicapped off a mark of 90.   Since then, he’s won a pair of all weather handicaps off marks of 86 & 89 and I think there’s more to come as a 4 year old.

He has disappointed the last twice but there are excuses.  At the end of last year, he was 5th of 7 in a Lingfield handicap having been outpaced off a slow pace.  He then stayed on well & his performance can be upgraded.   On reappearance this year, he was 7th of 9 at Newbury but although the good was quoted as good, it turned on the soft side later on the card which clearly doesn’t suit.  It’s interesting that his best RPRs have either been on the all weather or on good / firm turf.  His worst runs are on turf when the ground is on the easy side.

As a son of Rajsaman, this trip is ideal & he’s more of a stayer than many of these.  In addition, he goes better on firmish ground or, even better, on the all weather where he has a better strike rate than on turf.  With the surface in his favour, over a slightly longer trip than previous & in a field where there’s plenty of pace, he’s likely to go very well at decent each way odds.

Tips

Back Just The Man (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Betfair BOG (1/5 odds 1-4)

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