After a week where the cards were less than inspiring and as a result tough to bet on, things are looking up again on Saturday where there are some decent cards which have plenty of good races for us to enjoy and bet on.
We’ve picked out three bets for the day on Saturday, two of which come over in Ireland where we’ve had some good success this year already, with the other one coming up at Haydock in the middle of the afternoon.
2.20 Limerick
Preview
An open looking mile handicap for horses rated up to 85 with a maximum field of 16 expected to line up. A number of the leading fancies either don’t look that well handicapped or don’t have their ground & are worth taking on. Morning Approach is the current favourite but has run just once, winning a maiden at Dundalk but her opening mark of 80 looks stiff enough, and Akhlaaq did win last time up too but is 7lbs higher & may struggle to back up that run. The ground has gone against Mk Drama, Pepperoni Pete still looks harshly treated after winning 2 starts ago & being hit with a 17lb rise whilst Shackelton Hero & Dedillion have been in great form on the sand but need to prove they are as effective on turf. Fil The Power is the most likely of the market leaders after getting stopped in his tracks when making a challenge a week ago at Curragh and Magnetic North is beginning to look well handicapped but has quite a lot of improvement to find.
Betting
One thing that strikes me here is the lack of pace so I’m going to side with Longbourn who, despite his wide draw, could be the one to make the running. If he manages to jump out in the lead & can tack across to the rail, he’d look a good thing to make all. His last 3 runs have been on the all-weather & he’s performed with credit on 2 of those occasions & previous to that was 2nd & 1st in a pair of maidens on good ground on turf. The race he won at Tipperary looks good form, as he had to give weight to his rivals & many of those hold higher handicap marks. He recorded RPRs just a couple off today’s mark in those maiden runs so he doesn’t look harshly treated & a useful 5lb claimer takes the ride today which only enhances his chances in a very open looking heat.
Tips
PLACED – Back Longbourn (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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2.50 Haydock
Preview
13 runners for this Class 2 handicap around the turning 7 furlongs at Haydock where we have an unexposed favourite in the form of Dreamloper. There’s sure to be more to come after landing a handicap at Ascot on her last start last term but I’m not convinced this drop in trip will suit & this 6lb higher mark may find her out. Gobi Sunset has been running really well of late but this change of surface & much higher grade is against him whilst Persuasion is a tough one to figure out having been very highly tried last term. His only real form was his last run in handicap company but that was on heavy ground so may just flatter him. Fox Champion won the German 2000 Guineas as a 3 year old but was very disappointing last year which has seen him slide down the handicap significantly so he may find some improvement this year although I’m not convinced.
Betting
Admiraility, on his seasonal reappearance is the one to be on here. He’s not won since his reappearance 2 seasons ago but there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll go in here to win for the first time in 2 years. First up, he goes fresh as proved when winning that race (off a mark of 90) & since then, has been a 5-time runner up so it’s fair to say he’s held his form well. What’s actually more intriguing is his record over the trips he’s tried in the last 2 years; his form over 6 furlongs reads 8-4-6-6-5-6-2-7 whilst his record over this trip is 1-2-3-3-5-8-5-2-2-2. In 10 starts over 7 furlongs, we’d have been paid out on 9 occasions. He races off a mark of 92 today & whilst that last win was off 90, 6 of the other 9 runs over 7 furlongs have been off marks higher than today’s. His best form has come on quick ground too so with conditions to suit & hailing from a yard in form, he ranks as a good each way bet.
Tips
Back Admirality (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 10.00 BetVictor BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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3.30 Limerick
Preview
Just short of a mile and a half for this handicap with 16 going to post. Son Of Hypnos is 7lbs higher than his last run on turf, when winning on very different ground, whilst Melburnian is another that needs deep ground too. Band Of Outlaws won at the Cheltenham Festival in 2019 but hasn’t been seen on the track for almost 2 years & on the flat for almost 3 years. Springbank has top weight, continues to run well but his mark is now looking very stiff indeed but Ebony Maw could be the big danger if he improves for a tender ride on his reappearance last time.
Betting
The one I want to be on is Still Standing who finished in front of Ebony Maw last time. He’s largely been seen over hurdles recently but on his return to this discipline last time out, he stayed on really well at Cork behind Aesop at a massive price & is expected to improve for an extra 2 furlongs. The key to his chances here seems to be his mark & the ground; form with good in the going description reads 1-1-9-1-4-4-9-2 & there were excuses for some of those defeats. For example, his most recent 9th came in a hot Premier Handicap at the Curragh on seasonal reappearance where the rest of the field had a fitness advantage & yet he plugged on really well to finish 9th of 22 at 66/1. He was also 4th behind the top class Magical. His last handicap win came off 92 & then won a Listed event so today’s mark of 94 seems more than manageable. Conditions look ideal & with question marks over many of his rivals, he looks a decent each way shot here.
Tips
WON – Back Still Standing (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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