With three weeks until the Grand National, it is time to put the jumps racing to one side and concentrate on the flat stuff where there is a very appealing card out in Meydan on Saturday which includes the Dubai World Cup.
That is the feature race of the year in that part of the world and we are going double handed in the big race and then a scour of the support card has thrown up another bet to get stuck into prior to the standout race.
3.10 Meydan
Preview
On a top quality card, the Group 1 Dubai Turf is pretty competitive with the excellent Lord North bidding for a hat trick of wins in this race. Impossible to write off but he’s no certainty as he’s another year older and may be vulnerable to younger, more progressive rivals. The Japanese are certainly a threat and have both Serifos and Danon Beluga high up in the betting. It’s hard to know how good they really are and I’d prefer to get a bit of value on a horse I’m sure will run its race. Saaed Bin Suroor’s Real World would have been the bet if he had shown more in the Jebel Hatta, a race where the 1-2-3 all reoppose, whilst Nations Pride holds good claims but has been handed the absolute worst of the draw.
Betting
Going back to the Jebel Hatta, I’m siding with the 3rd horse home that day, Master Of The Seas. He was sent off favourite for that but it was such a messy race. He just couldn’t get a position early doors, was switched out wide and was shuffled back entering the straight. However, he finished with a fair late rattle and was a rapidly diminishing half length down at the line behind reopposing rivals Alfareeq and El Drama. He will surely turn the tables on those 2 today, given the 1-2 in that race were 1-2 all the way and avoided all the trouble. Previous to that run, he won the Group 2 Zabeel Mile here with ease after 9 months off. Whilst yet to win a Group 1, he was a short head to Poetic Flare in the 2000 Guineas 2 years ago and was incredibly unlucky last time out. With a bit more luck, this could be his time to finally get that first Group 1 success in an open looking race.
Tips
Back Master Of The Seas (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-5)
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4.35 Meydan
Preview
On a superb day’s racing, the biggest race is without question the Group 1 Dubai World Cup where a field of 15 go to post. Bob Baffert’s Country Grammer won this last year and with Dettori again on board, he’s sure to hold a good chance but his draw is 14 is a negative. The same concerns with the draw are also apparent for the Crisford trained favourite, Algiers (stall 13) and the recent Saudi Cup winner Panthalassa (15). Japan has a very strong hand, saddling 8 of the 15 runners and I’m taking 2 against the field.
Betting
The first is T O Keynes who has handed a nice draw in 6. He’s won 5 of his 12 starts including 3 Group 1’s and whilst his form is a bit up and down, he’s not got much to find with the principles if putting his best foot forward. He most recently won a Group 1 in November when easily disposing of a 15 strong field by almost 3 lengths. Since then, he disappointed in 4th in the Champions Cup and was then 2nd behind the reopposing Ushba Tesoro. I expect he’ll turn the tables on that rival today as he didn’t get the greatest of passages and took quite a hold early on in that race. Interestingly, he also bypassed the Saudi Cup to target this and the top class Oisin Murphy gets the leg up for the first time. If he makes the most of his good draw, he might prove best of the Japanese raiding party.
That said, I cannot leave out Geoglyph. Drawn 9 which should be ok, his claims are entirely based on the improvement I expect to see from his Saudi Cup run. Firstly, this was his first run on dirt, a surface he’s bred for, and he ran a cracker to finish just over a length 4th of 13, being passed by 2 rivals late on. The first 3 all reoppose here with the claims of the 1-2 already diminished by their draws. This is an argument that the selection faded late on but I put that down to how hard he worked early on from a wide draw to be up with the leader and all the way winner. He used up loads of energy but less than a furlong out, he still looked the most likely winner. With a better draw today, that first dirt experience under his belt and the assistance of the excellent Lemaire in the saddle, it would not surprise me to see him come home in front.
Tips
Back T O Keynes (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.50 Skybet (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back Geoglyph (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Skybet (⅕ odds 1-5)
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