The weekend before Royal Ascot but there’s no let up in the quality of action on the track with the Scottish Sprint Cup up at Musselburgh and the consolation race, the Tartan Trophy, both likely to be very competitive heats. I’m taking bets in each race.
3.10 Musselburgh
The consolation race is up first with 15 runners for this Class 3, 5 furlong sprint handicap. We have a very warm favourite here in Oliva Fallow but our bet comes in the shape of Merhoob. The 4 year old gelding trained by John Ryan comes here in decent shape and I’m hoping he can get his first win on turf to add to his 2 wins on the sand. He has had an excellent winter on the sand, winning a couple of races at Chelmsford. I like his consistent profile and after winning a handicap off 77, he’s finished 4-3-4-5 in his 4 races since off and around this mark.
His best piece of turf form was down at Ascot, finishing 3rd of 21 in a big field handicap, coming from off the pace best of all. He has shown that he can quicken and almost certainly needs a fast pace to chase which he’ll get here. I think another plus is the fact he’s dropped in trip for his first try at 5 furlongs which could be the making of him. He is berthed well in stall 10 and it’s interesting his trainer has sent him up all the way from Newmarket. 10/1 looks fair in a race that probably won’t take that much winning.
Olivia Fallow looks to be very well handicapped and should run a massive race but 3/1 is no price in a sprint like this where the more experienced Graham Lee is replaced in the saddle by 3lb apprentice, Joe Doyle. Barnet Fair, at 8/1, is another who should go well but at 8 year old, you have to question whether all his old ability remains. He’s not won for 2 years and that’s enough to put me off. Shipyard and Distant Past are the other 2 well fancied horses, with the former proving a little frustrating and has the worst of the draw of the market principles whilst Distant Past likes it here but has something to prove on recent form.
Back Merhoob (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3 BOG)
3.45 Musselburgh
Over the same trip, the Sprint Cup is always incredibly competitive and this year is no exception. There’s plenty of money knocking around for Kimberella, Thesme and Judicial but the one I’m jumping on is Royal Birth at 14/1. A winner of 4 of his 15 career starts, our selection comes from the shrewd Newmarket stable of Stuart Williams and he looks well handicapped to strike today. He’s another to have run well on the all weather over the winter, culminating in a win off a mark of 90 in a Class 2 handicap at Lingfield. He won well that day and it’s therefore slightly disappointing that he’s only finished 6th in his 2 turf starts since, behind Duke Of Firenze and Harry Hurricane, both at York.
He finished behind a number of these on those starts but he’s weighted to turn the tables today. He’s 3lb better off with favourite Kimberella for just over 2 lengths last time out but he should be seen in a better light today if he can break on terms. Basically, the start has scuppered his chance both races. I also feel this track is better suited to his come from behind style, and he’s drawn in and around the pace so should get a good tow into it.
I’m also going to have a 2nd bet in this race as I can’t ignore 11 year old course specialist Silvanus. His trainer is no stranger to landing a big priced winner and whilst this looks tough from stall 1, Silvanus loves this venue. He’s won 4 of his 14 starts here and been in the first 4 in 9 of those races. He gets in today off his last winning mark of 94 which he won off last August and seems to be keeping his form well.
Kimberella is the favourite after being short headed in the Dash on Derby day last Saturday and is only 1lb higher. He still looks well handicapped but is proving a little frustrating and there’s probably better value around. Thesme is an in form front runner but stall 4 for a horse that wants to be right up there from the start is a worry, especially at single figure odds. See The Sun bids for a hat trick but a 5lb higher mark may blunt his speed whilst Duke Of Firenze is 10lb higher than when winning at York 2 races back. Judicial is probably the one I’m most worried about as, despite a 6lb higher mark, he continues to go from strength to strength and has plenty in his favour today.
Back Royal Birth (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-4 BOG)
Back Silvanus (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 41.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-4 BOG)
