The flat season is in full flow now & I’ve got a couple of bets in a pair of handicaps, including one in the Spring Cup at Newbury.
3.45 Newbury: Spring Cup
1m over the straight mile with 25 runners so where to start? Afaak was an intended Lincoln runner but the soft ground went against him & he was well fancied after his last run where he split Addeyybb, the impressive Lincoln winner, and Fire Brigade. It’s hard to knock his chances but this is so competitive so he needs to further prove himself. Taqdeer ran ok in the Spring Mile having been off for well over a year but his price is too short. Leader Writer, Repercussion, Humbert & Ballard Down are others to come here from Donny but I’m taking them all on with one at a big price.
Third Time Lucky is the selection. He’s out of the Fahey yard that has won this race 3 times in the last decade. Furthermore, in the last 4 years, he’s won it twice, finished 2nd once & also placed 5th in the other year; it’s definitely a race the yard targets. Fahey runs 2 here but this one holds the more solid claims. Now a 6 year old, my selection has won 5 of his 18 starts on turf but is less successful on the sand where he’s been running for the past 12 months, bar his last run at Naas.
He ran no sort of the race in the Irish Lincoln at Naas last time out but encountered heavy ground which probably didn’t suit. However, he never really held any chance being drawn out wide & using up lots of energy early doors to get a prominent position. On that ground, there was no way he was getting home.
He races off a mark of 95 today, same as that run over in Ireland but, interestingly, he last raced on turf in the Lincoln 12 months ago off 11lbs higher. His last turf win was in 2015 in the Cambridgeshire, coincidentally off this mark. That proves his liking too for a big field & his form since has backed up the fact he shouldn’t be ignored here.
Since the Cambridgeshire, his turf form reads 11/19 off 102 (pulled hard & off the back of a 229 day absence), 19/19 off 102 (78 day absence), 5/20 off 100, 4/31 off 100, 5/19 off 101 and 17/22 off 106 (career high mark). His form is a bit all or nothing but he has loads in his favour; middle draw, low mark, ground conditions & big field.
With his trainer’s excellent record in the race, I fancy him to run very well.
Back Third Time Lucky (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 21.00 Ladbrokes BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Bet here:
4.15 Thirsk
A Class 3 mile & a half handicap with 16 runners going to post. The favourite is Tuff Rock from the Ed Walker yard & he looks to hold a solid chance judged on his 4th in the Rosebery Handicap. This race, however, is really competitive & I’d rather find one at a bigger price.
That leads me to Northwest Frontier who has plenty going for him. I’ll get the downside out of the way early; he has a wide draw which is no way ideal. However, there should be loads of pace on here which means he can tack over early & be produced down the long straight.
A lightly raced 4 year old who’s run only 8 times & made his debut in June of last year. He won a maiden over 2 furlongs shorter before staying on strongly over course & distance to lose out by a short head off a mark of 77 (races off 76 today).
His form since hasn’t been as good but I can find valid excuses for his poor form. He stepped up in trip to 1 mile 6 furlongs in a Class 2 at York & wasn’t disgraced in finishing midfield before 2 poor runs on soft ground. I’m convinced the ground was against him but today he should be seen in a better light with the drying ground in his favour. On his final run, he had a try on the all weather. Drawn wide, he got to the front but the race favoured hold up types & he was swallowed up late on to finish 7th. Those runs, however, have seen his mark come back from the low 80s to 76, which is lower than the one he raced off when 2nd here.
With Hanagan back on board & Fahey in decent form, a big run is expected if the race is run to suit & the draw doesn’t scupper his chances.
Back Northwest Frontier (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Paddy Power BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
Bet here:
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