It’s been a busy time of it over the jumps with both Cheltenham and Aintree in the last month. However, now it is time for the flat season to get up and running, and we start this week with the 3 day Craven meeting from Newmarket. The classic generation put their credentials to the test, less than 3 weeks ahead of the Guineas and we start with the girls doing battle in the Nell Gwyn.
We have 3 bets tomorrow, 2 in that fillies trial and another in the big 6 furlong handicap.
3.20 Newmarket
The 6 furlong Class 2 handicap features a field of 13 and the betting is dominated by Richard Fahey who has the favourite in Grandad’s World and the current 3rd best in Patrick.
Grandad’s World is lightly raced and has the assistance of Ryan Moore doing the steering but he doesn’t look particularly well in to us. He is 6lb above his highest winning mark and 2lb above his last bit of form, when splitting Twilight Son and Magical Memory at York back in June. Admittedly, he did win first time up last season so the track absence shouldn’t be an issue but we feel he has something to find with Richard Hannon’s Desert Force. In a similar manner, Desert Force split the same 2 horses but it was in a different race and this one is much better off at the weights with Grandad’s World. He also finished ahead of Fahey’s horse in August at Ascot. The concern with both of these is that neither ended the season that well and are priced on their ability to go first time up.
Patrick has run 3 times already this season so his wellbeing is not an issue. However, he was well held on soft ground in Ireland last time out. The concern, other than a stiff looking mark, is that we’ll likely see some rain between now and race time which could move the going from good to something on the easy side of good. It is another horse who’s already been seen this term that we are siding with, and that horse is Lucky Beggar.
Charlie Hills’ charge is a 6 year old who has raced 31 times, winning 4 of those, but who looks very dangerously handicapped on the best of his form. He’s won 3 handicaps in his career of 91, 99 and 102, yet races off just 91 today, his lowest mark since that first win in August 2012. However, let’s be clear, this horse is not on the downgrade despite not having won since his seasonal reappearance 2 years ago; he’s merely been contesting some good races or hasn’t had conditions to suit.
Lucky Beggar has plenty of pace, racing several times over 5 furlongs but he has winning form at this trip and at this track. He closed last season with 4 very creditable runs in big handicaps without finishing in the places and that has seen his mark tumble. He has a distinct liking for easy ground and is fit from a spin on the all-weather last week where he pulled too hard. Another positive is the fact he’s been gelded over the winter and, provided he settles well, he should very soon be turning his good runs into wins, especially now he’s racing off a lowly mark. Headgear has been discarded.
Back Lucky Beggar (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 9.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
4.30 Newmarket
The Nell Gwyn is a Group 3 trial for the girls who are likely to take in the 1000 Guineas at the end of this month. The market is dominated by 4 horses and we’re bypassing them all in favour of a couple of longer priced each way shots.
Nathra is the likely favourite and is easily dismissed based on her 2nd in the Fillies Mile behind Minding but, even at 2, she looked in need of at least a mile and we’re hoping she may find this a bit sharp. That same comment applies to the 4th that day, Coolmore from the O’Brien yard.
Illuminate carries a 3lb penalty and was thought good enough at 2 to go to the Breeders Cup but it has already been stated she’s unlikely to take part on soft ground so the expected rain is a big negative. However, our first bet comes in the shape of a horse Illuminate beat last season, Ashadihan.
She won her maiden easy at Haydock on good ground before finishing 2nd to Illuminate on ground too firm for her in the Albany. Her trainer, Kevin Ryan, suggested she may need further than 6 furlongs so the 7 furlong trip today looks to be right up her street. It was disappointing that she finished plumb last on her next run in the Lowther on easy ground but we’re prepared to ignore that as she was bumped leaving the stalls and never got into the race. She was eased when beaten. Her trainer holds her in high regard and on more suitable ground, we’re not really sure why she’s 5 times the price of Illuminate.
First Victory is Saeed Bin Suroor’s charge and she’s the winner of both her starts at 2, including the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes. She takes on Robanne, a filly that finished 1.5 lengths back in 3rd but we feel she could reverse the placings today, particularly as the respective trainers are in contrasting form. The Bin Suroor stable has not hit any form yet whilst Robanne’s yard of William Knight is going very well with 3 winners and 3 2nds from its last 10 runners.
Robanne is lightly raced, with just 2 races under her belt. On her debut, she won a soft ground 7 furlong maiden at Salisbury staying on in taking fashion to win going away. She raced apart from Lady Of Victory and the runner up last time out, here at Newmarket, so the 3rd place finish can be upgraded a little too. She will appreciate the ground today, has course form and hails from a yard in top form so, again, it’s hard to understand why she’s such a big price.
PLACED – Back Robanne (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back Ashadihan (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back them here:
