Wednesday 18th April
Day 2 of the Craven meeting sees 3 big races with Nell Gwyn, Earl of Sefton & the European Free handicap. We are taking 3 bets today, 2 from HQ & 1 on the all weather tonight at Kempton.
1.50 Newmarket: Class 2, 6 Furlong Handicap
We saw yesterday that horses that raced up with the pace generally held sway & in a big field of 6 furlong sprinters, I’m not going to deviate from that pace angle.
The main pace looks to be with those drawn low but, in fairness, it is likely the runners will group so I wouldn’t let the draw put you off anything. Ekhtiyaar is the current favourite & whilst he looks the type to progress, I cannot be having him. He could only finish 5th last time out off this new mark & his trainer, Roger Varian, is without a winner in the last 2 weeks from 14 runners despite saddling 5 favourites & all of them starting at 8/1 or less.
Shanghai Glory might just be a horse to follow this season after a set of creditable efforts in big field handicaps last term but he likes to be held up & I think I’d rather wait for another day with him. Shared Equity has ability but is frustrating & I cannot be confident he will follow up on his excellent 2nd to Naadirr.
Instead, I’ll head further down the market for our speculative bet in front runner & all weather specialist Swift Approval. First up, I’m buoyed by the fact his stable had one runner yesterday here at it won at 14/1. They only have 2 more runners at HQ this week, both of which run in this race. Our selection is the more fancied runner & it’s easy to see why. He’s been running very well on the all weather & is racing here off a mark he’s more than capable of defying, a rating of 91.
Admittedly, his best form might be a 7 furlongs but that almost guarantees he will get home on a stiff track & easy ground. In fact, he’s equally capable at 6 furlongs but a mile is clearly too far. He will race right up with the pace & has a good rail draw. Jockey booking is a plus, finishing 2nd the only other time he’s been on board. This horse needs a strong jockey too & is one to be avoided whenever an apprentice takes the ride. His last 3 wins have come off marks of 92 & 91 twice so a mark of 91 is no issue.
In the last 12 months, the selection has raced xxx times off a mark of 91 or 92 (no races off lower) with a pro jockey up top over trips up to & including 7 furlongs. Form figures read 4th (placed) at 33/1, 1st at 16/1, 2nd at 8/1, 2nd at 15/2, 1st at 15/2 & 3rd at 4/1. He’s no certainty to repeat that form in a warm looking race back on turf but he’s no 16/1 shot in my book.
Back Swift Approval (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Ladbrokes BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Bet here:
2.25 Newmarket: European Free Handicap
As much as I mentioned pace in our first bet, I’m using the angle in a completely different way for the 2nd bet. A 10 runner listed handicap full of 3 year olds isn’t the easiest race to solve but this race is full of front runners or prominent types, most of which have their best form over a furlong shorter.
At the head of the market, the likes of Hey Jonesy, Snazzy Jazzy & Nebo all bring top form to the table but all 3 likes to be up with the pace. Add Finniston Farm to that list & that’s 4 of the front 5 in the market that be better in a race where there’s less competition for the lead.
That leads us to our bet, the other 1 of the 5, Folk Tale. He likes to be held up which, in this race, is almost a tip in itself but he has plenty of other things to recommend him. First up, he’s from a stable in tip top form & has a top jockey on board who will know how to judge the pace. He won’t be battling for the lead but he’ll be mindful of getting too far back in what is probably a front runners’ track.
He raced just 3 times as a 2 year old & progressed on each run. On his debut, he ran a good race in finishing 4th to the top class Masar. That day he challenged on the outside & looked to be in with every chance but pulling hard early took its toll. He made up for it next time out winning his maiden & was then pitched into a Group 2, the Railway Stakes over in Ireland. He ran well for a long way before fading out of it late on behind Beresford & Verbal Dexterity amongst others.
He has been gelded over the winter which could bring about improvement whilst his stable are suggesting he’s ready to run a big race which is a good sign. Being a son of Dubawi, he has a good pedigree & will stay this trip. In fact, it would be no surprise to make up into a top miler later in the season. In a race where the pace element suits him almost exclusively, I’d be disappointed were he not to go very close.
Back Folk Tale (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
8.45 Kempton: Class 4, 2 Mile Handicap
13 runners for this but given that 2 are quite well fancied & several have little chance, there’s a bit of value around the rest; the ones 3rd-6th in the betting market.
Soghan & October Storm head the betting but I want to oppose both. The former looks to be progressing but has only won a maiden to date & was a nose 2nd on his handicap debut here over a half a mile shorter. He’s been raised 3lb and that, coupled with a new trip, makes him a questionable favourite at 2/1. October Storm represents powerful connections &, in fairness, is a big danger but he’s been off for over 6 months & needs a strong pace which is far from guaranteed here.
I would therefore prefer a horse that likes to be prominent & the one to take my eye is top weight Gavlar. He’s now a 7 year old but appears to be as good as ever judged on his excellent 3rd in the Queens Prize over course & distance less than 2 weeks ago. His mark remains unchanged but he’s been dropped significantly in grade from Class 2 to Class 4. A repeat of that run should be enough in this company.
He’s raced over course & distance 7 times, winning twice & placed on a further 3 occasions. Reading into that more, his 2 wins came on the only 2 occasions he’s raced in this class of race, off marks of 82 & 88 (he’s off 83 today). His placed runs were in a Class 3 off 82, Class 2 off 92 & that run last time out, another Class 2 of 83.
He clearly retains ability, likes to race prominently, has a decent draw in 5 to get an early position, is off a good mark in lowly company (for him) & is race fit so should go very well at an each way price. The only nagging doubt is trainer form but the stable’s runners are still running creditably without managing to get their head in front. With so many positives, I’m happy to be on board.
Back Gavlar (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.00 Skybet BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Bet here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2018
