A decent day’s racing ahead of us with the Lockinge from Newbury and the 3 year old Sprint Trophy from Newmarket. The Lockinge certainly looks a good renewal that is wide open and I certainly cannot pick the winner. Instead, I’m going to have a go at 2 competitive handicaps.
4.10 Newmarket: 3 year old Sprint Trophy
Richard Fahey likes to target this 6 furlong handicap and sends 2 down from the north but I’m not sure he has a stand out candidate. Gallipoli is the yard’s main hope but hasn’t done enough in 3 starts to believe he has the required improvement here whilst Mr Lupton shoulders top weight and will struggle to defy his current mark.
Marsha is a typical Sir Mark Prescott handicapper and holds a Group 1 entry. She really could be anything but I’d be keen to oppose her taking on the boys. Suqoor has been in form for Chris Dwyer but he’s stepping up in class and has a 9lb higher mark to overcome, so 8/1 looks very short to me. Nisser is a massive danger first time in a handicap and Richard Hannon knows how to get one ready but you’re backing based on potential rather than ability so again there doesn’t appear to be much value in his price.
The current favourite is Venturous and I can see why. He has some good form from last term and represents the in form Charlie Appleby yard. His standing in the market is down to his last run behind Ikerrin Road in a similar event to this where he finished 3rd of 10, despite not getting the best of runs. He’s run here off the same mark. However, at a huge price, I’m siding with Take The Helm who finished just over 2 lengths behind Venturous that day.
He has been dropped 2lb despite conditions being totally against him that day. Drawn wide but switched to the inside (lost a length or so there), he was held up off a very sedate pace and pulled hard. He stayed on for pressure and Adventurous never really pulled away from our selection at any stage. The ground was also too soft and he should be a different proposition today on better ground. He also has a better draw and there appears to be plenty of pace so he should get a good tow into the race whilst his jockey’s 7lb claim should help matters.
Take The Helm has some great form on the all-weather over further so this stiff track with a fast pace should suit and I expect he’ll be staying on better than most. Taking of the all-weather, he took in a listed race at Lingfield where he again pulled hard, was given an awful ride and had the worst of the draw but still managed to finish 2 lengths 5th at 33/1. His stable are also beginning to hit top gear with 2 winners and a 2nd from their last 4 runners, those winners being his first this year. 33/1 looks a terrific price and I’m happy to play at those odds.
Back Take The Helm (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
5.35 Newbury
Our 2nd bet comes from the lucky last at Newbury, a 1 mile straight track handicap. Despite being a Class 2, I don’t think it’s all that competitive and there appears to be only 4 or 5 with any real chance. Beyond the top 2, the next highest rated runner races off 95, a mark that could get them into a Class 3 race.
Mustaaqeem lurks dangerously off a mark of 88 for Sir Michael Stoute and is very lightly raced. He disappointed in a similar event last time out at Haydock and whilst he may well improve and strip fitter, 4/1 isn’t a price I’m interested in. Arthenus is the other challenging for market leadership, mainly off the back of a hat trick at the back end of his 3 year old career. That saw his mark rise from 87 to 100. His only run off his revised mark was a good 6th at Newmarket and he is probably the most likely of the market leaders.
Gabrial’s Kaka is a capable sort but doesn’t look to be handicapped well whilst Sinfonietta is in form but I don’t think a straight mile will suit. The one I’m very interested is another from the same stable as our other bet today, and is the top weight Spark Plug. He won this race last year off a 2lb lower mark and looks capable off this mark. He was 2nd in last year’s Spring Cup here but winning this race and looked set for a big year. I thought he’d progress into Group class but, whilst running a big race in the Hunt Cup, he fell inside the final furlong. That seemed to knock his confidence but I’m also not sure conditions suited in his next 4 runs. Sandown is not his track whilst he needs good ground to show his best, something he didn’t get in 2 runs back at Ascot, the scene of his fall.
He ran a cracker in 5th at Ascot on his last run when the ground was too soft and he reappears here off the same mark. The ground at Newbury has dried out significantly and it’s just about good ground which suits. He’ll be happy back at this track and shows his best form fresh so this being his reappearance is actually a positive. I’m pretty sure the yard have targeted this race and in what looks an easier race than 12 months ago, I think he’s the most likely winner especially with the stable hitting top gear.
Back Spark Plug (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Coral (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
