7 days on from the Crabbies Grand National won in fine style by Rule The World, we head north for the Scottish Grand National another marathon trip of 4 miles. We fancy a couple of longshots for this.
The Newbury Greenham meeting has been moved to the all-weather at Chelmsford because of the weather and that has seen the field for the big handicap, the Spring Cup, cut up significantly. Therefore, we are steering clear of that card and instead heading up to Thirsk for our fix of the flat.
4.10 Ayr: Scottish Grand National
A dry night has seen the going change to good to soft, soft in places, and there is the usual big field of 30 taking their chance. There is no clear favourites with bookies going 10/1 the field and, based on past results, it’s not a race to be taking a short priced runner. Also, lighter weights are favoured with one winner in the last 10 runnings carrying over 10st9lbs, and 8 of the 10 carrying no more than 10st4lbs. That said, the handicap is a little more compressed this year with the bottom weight carrying 10st6lbs, yet there is still half the field within 5lbs off bottom weight. It is with the horses we will stick with for our bets.
Because of the big field and the competitiveness of the race, we are going double handed but both selections are big prices in a very open event. The first of those is Ballyculla, off 10st7lbs, from the up and coming Warren Greatrex yard. This horse is a 9 year old that is still lightly raced over fences with 9 starts to his name. He finished 7th at Cheltenham last season over this trip but we’re not sure stamina was to blame there. He struggled to settle early which was probably the cause of him weakening late on but, even if stamina was the issue, Ayr is a much easier track than the undulations of Cheltenham.
He has been out 3 times this season, winning 2 small field handicaps either side of a fall in the Eider. He was made favourite for the Eider, a similar event to this, so we’re surprised to see quotes of 25/1 for this race knocking around. Admittedly, he jumped poorly that day but was still travelling well enough when coming down midway through the race. Blinkers replace cheekpieces today in the hope they sharpen his jumping and, if they do the trick, he will run a big race. Connections have long since thought marathon trips are his future so 4 miles with a low weight and a dangerous looking mark looks ideal.
Our 2nd bet has a bit more weight to carry, 10st11lbs, and trades at a bigger price of 40/1 but he holds excellent claims too. That horse is the Colin Tizzard second string, Masters Hill. Another who is still lightly raced over fences but is a 10 year old nonetheless. He’s been out 6 times this season, but is yet to win this term and has been pulled up twice. That doesn’t seem to be an ideal profile but there are reasons why we could see improvement today. Firstly, his trainer is in rude health and he’s put the underrated James Reveley in the saddle. He’s been improving of late and looks certain to be suited by the step up to a marathon trip. Any drying of the ground is in his favour too.
The selection started the season off a mark of 144 and gets in today off 140. He finished 3rd to Shotavodka off this mark at Newbury 2 starts ago when outpaced over 6 furlongs shorter than this trip. Last time out at Taunton, he improved for being stepped up a further 2 furlongs and may have won had he not hit 2 out. That was off a 2lb lower mark but the extra half mile, stronger handling and a return to a left handed track will suit, especially as he has a tendency to jump to the left. The trainer has already said he can’t split his pair so, when you consider his other runner Golden Chieftain is a 14/1 shot and ranks amongst the favourites for the race, you can see why Masters Hill is overpriced.
Back Ballyculla (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 26.00 Coral (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
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Remember – Coral are offering MONEY BACK if 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th in the Scottish Grand National
Back Masters Hill (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 41.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
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2.20 Thirsk
This is the 2nd division of a Class 5 handicap over the straight 6 furlongs. Final Venture, Pomme De Terre and Lackaday dominate the betting but we are heading further down the betting for our selection.
Our bet comes in the form of the 7 year old veteran of 53 races, Tango Sky. He looks to have solid claims based on his liking for soft ground which he will get today. He moved to today’s yard of Paul Midgeley in the summer of last season and won his first start off 3lb lower over this trip on soft ground. His form since hasn’t been as bad as his price today suggests; a decent 4th of 13 next time out off 1lb higher than today around a turning 6 furlongs (prefers straight tracks), 5th of 11 on unsuitable firm ground and then a pair of 2nd’s to close the season.
His form this season hasn’t been quite as good, opening up with a 5th of 11 over a furlong further on the all-weather and another 5th of 13 over that same trip on soft ground at Catterick. Both those are turning tracks and we feel he’s best over a furlong shorter. The other key factor is that he’s never won after an absence of more than 1 month so it’s easy to see why he didn’t show his best. Returned to track after just a 10 day rest, he should go much better today. A high draw is preferred here so his draw of 11 (from 12 runners) is another tick in the box.
Lackaday is in form but has a tough mark to overcome and the same can be said about Pomme De Terre who also makes his reappearance. Final Venture has claims on his last start on heavy but he’s very inexperienced and is not certain to build on that run.
Back Tango Sky (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
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4.40 Thirsk
12 furlongs is the trip for this 0-100 rated Class 2 handicap over 1 mile 4 furlongs. Most of the runners here have yet to race this season and therefore we are looking for a horse that goes well fresh. In addition, the ground is very soft so a proven stayer is required and one that will love the ground.
Cymro is the favourite but whilst he likes easy ground, this may be too soft and there’s a definite doubt over the trip. Buonarroti has claims on his 2nd in the November Handicap on heavy but he has something to prove first time up.
The one that the ticks the boxes for us is Hernandoshideaway. He’s a lightly raced 4 year old having won 2 and finishing 2nd twice in his 6 career starts and, before his tailing off at the back end of last season, looked to be a horse going places. Michael Dods, his trainer, has said that he believes he’ll make up into a better 4 year old so that’s a likely positive.
He won an Ayr maiden as a 2 year old before opening up his 3 year old campaign with a good 2nd at Chester on good to soft ground over today’s trip. He followed that up with an improved run to finished 2nd to Fabricate at Haydock. He then won off 89 at Pontefract on ground a bit too quick for him and was talked up at a big contender for the Melrose at York over 1 mile 6 furlongs. He took his chance there but pulled too hard before struggling at Newmarket on his final start.
What we like is that this horse is likely to improve for even softer ground and he will stay this trip better than most, especially on this ground. If anything, a little further may be better but the going should help. He is proven fresh, winning on his debut and then on his only run with a 60+ day absence. This more conventional flat track will suit too and conditions could hardly be better in an event where many horses have lots to prove.
Back Hernandoshideaway (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Betfred (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
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