The 2nd day of the Doncaster Lincoln meeting and more tough handicaps to try and crack. It is in one of those that our bet comes in the hope of better luck than we got yesterday, where we were a touch unlucky with Donncha finishing 2nd at 16/1.
1.50 Doncaster
Soft ground has already claimed 2 of the runners so we are down to a field of 20 for this Class 4 0-85 handicap over 7 furlongs. What is evident, based on yesterday, is that we are looking for a horse that handles cut in the ground and is either fit from a good all weather campaign or is proven fresh. As mentioned before, the draw here is less important than being drawn near to the pace and, even that was less of a factor on Saturday as they congregated down the middle of the track for the straight track handicaps.
Both Jan Van Hoof and Moonlightnavigator arrive here with claims and that is reflected by their standing in the betting market. Jan Van Hoof is the current favourite and is saddled with top weight today off a mark of 85. His stable has a super record in the race and he is sure to go well but, on a formline through Johnny Cavagin and a race at Pontefract in September, he appears to be too short a price.
Moonlightnavigator has won on soft in a better grade and off a higher mark than today but the concern would be a series of average recent efforts and he will need to step up on what’s he’s achieved to take a hand.
The most solid betting proposition, and the one that provides the most value, is the winner of last year’s running of this, Johnny Cavagin. Not only did he win last year off exactly the same mark as today, he was 2nd the year before so it’s a race he’s targeted at. He is now a 7 year old but showed he retained all his form by winning this September race against Jan Van Hoof by a nose. He’s a further 2lb better off today too.
After winning off 82 12 months ago, Johnny Cavagin had a mixed campaign after moving stables. There are 2 things that’s clear about this horse; he needs a stiff 6 furlongs or easy 7 furlongs to show his best, and has a class ceiling of Class 4. After moving yards, he had excuses with 4 runs in the wrong grade and 3 over the wrong trip. In fact, the first time conditions were in his favour, he won at 25/1.
He is a horse that likes Doncaster and goes well on soft with a win and 2 2nds from 4 runs, the only poor run was when outside of his class boundaries. The other thing in our favour is his record first time up; he’s won on his seasonal reappearance in 3 of the last 4 years at prices of 16/1, 15/2 and 14/1. His other seasonal reappearance was none too shabby either, a 2nd place in this race 2 years back, again at a big price of 16/1. It seems to us that he’s gone under the radar again and is therefore a bet not to be missed at 12/1.
Tip
Back Johnny Cavagin (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
