The big race of the week on the Knavesmire takes place on the Thursday with the Derby hopefuls taking centre stage in the Dante. It looks a great race and there’s some good supporting races, none more so than the ultra-competitive Hambleton Listed Handicap.
3.15 York: Dante Stakes
Whilst there are 12 runners for this key Derby trial, the race revolves around current Derby favourite Midterm from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. I’m particularly sweet on his chances in 3 weeks time and for that reason, I won’t be opposing him here. He’s 3/1 to win at Epsom and that looks fair on his 2 runs / 2 wins to date. He won his maiden last term in impressive fashion and started this season well when travelling sweetly and winning with a little in hand at Sandown. He’ll come on plenty for that and I fancy him to follow up here, albeit at skinny odds.
His main competition should come from the Aiden O’Brien trained Deauville and the John Gosden pair, Foundation and Wings Of Desire, all who can be backed at around 6/1. Deauville finished behind Foundation in the Royal Lodge before running below par in the Racing Post Trophy but he’s likely to be well suited by the step up in trip and should go well. Foundation probably had the best form of these at 2 and started this season ok when 3rd to Stormy Antarctic in the Craven. He was noted as being outpaced that day and is another who’ll improve for an extra 2 furlongs. However, in form Frankie Dettori switches to twice raced and maiden winner Wings Of Desire. On form, he’s unlucky to be in the frame but the fact Dettori has picked this one is a statement of intent and he could be anything.
Again, this looks a great race to sit back and take in without risking any money on it. Instead, my bets come in the Hambleton.
3.45 York
An ultra-competitive 19 runner handicap over a mile and that’s underlined by the fact we go 7/1 the field. Always Smile is the favourite having only raced 4 times and is just a nose away from being unbeaten. Her mark continues to rise, she’ll surely go on to Group races later this season but I’m not totally convinced she’ll get the better of some experienced and top quality handicappers.
Convey does not look the most straightforward whilst Lord Of The Land is a horse I like but this might be a little too hot for him. Third Time Lucky is the Cambridgeshire but is likely to need the run and I do fancy the runner up, Master The World to turn the tables on him here. Master The World ran a cracker at Newmarket on his reappearance but has an average strike rate so is passed over.
I like Oracolo at the foot of the handicap but he’s out of the handicap and is reluctantly dismissed whilst Donncha ran a super race in the Spring Mile and could go well again but it’s the horse he finished behind that day, Lord Of The Rock, that is my first bet in this race.
He’s raced only 6 times so should be open to improvement and likes to go from the front so a low draw in 6 as well as a lack of pace in the race are both positives. When he won his maiden last season by 8 lengths, the stable were talking him up so it was good to see him battle on well to hold Donncha at Doncaster in the Spring Mile on ground that was likely plenty soft enough. He goes up 5lb for that run but travelled well enough in front to think there’s more to come. He’s the only horse in the 19 strong field to have won this year and that shouldn’t be underestimated. I’m therefore surprised to see him available at 14/1 so he is our first of 2 bets in this race.
Our 2nd bet comes in the shape of Express Himself. I’m not sure this will be a surprise and he’ll likely be a popular pick on the back of 2 promising runs this term. Now a 5 year old, he’s a winner of 4 of his 18 starts and has continued to improve. He ran 7th in the Lincoln and he ran better than his finishing position suggests. He was slow out of the gates but travelled as well as anything and was one of the last off the bridle. However, he didn’t find lots for pressure which I’m sure was on account of the very soft ground. He backed up the promising run last time out when 4th of 12 in a really competitive Haydock handicap, behind You’re Fired. He was given a poor ride when sticking to the inside up the wide Haydock straight and had nowhere to go at a crucial stage in the race. He got going all too late and could never land a blow. The long straight at York should suit and, off the same mark, he will go close given a trouble free passage.
Tips
Back Lord Of The Rock (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
Back Express Himself (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
