The final day of the York meeting rounds off with the highlight of the week, the Ebor Handicap. On a decent supporting card, there are some good betting opportunities in the opening Class 2 handicap and the 2 year old Gimcrack.
1.45: Class 2 Handicap
17 runners for this Class 2 handicap over 10 furlongs and it is yet another very competitive race with 7/1 the field being offered. I’m again going double handed and the first is a horse I’ve followed this season and who deserves to land a big handicap in Erik The Red. After finishing last season with a hat trick of wins, he started off this term off a mark of 91 and was incredibly unlucky to get collared by You’re Fired at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance. He then ran here over course and distance, again running well in a top handicap finishing 3rd to Nayel when not getting the run of the race. He’s not been quite as good recently but smaller fields and unconventional tracks haven’t helped. Easier ground here will suit as will the long straight and his mark is still looking workable. Conditions look perfect and I expect another big run.
Fallen For A Star is our second bet and is lightly raced having only been seen on the track 8 times. He won convincingly at Newcastle in June and the key seemed to be a decent pace and being held up which makes the booking of Jamie Spencer a positive one. He went to Yarmouth next time and nothing went his way. It turned into a bit of a sprint and the ground was probably a little lively. He does have something to prove but I think his best days are ahead of him and this galloping track, bigger field and easier ground may bring out more improvement. He is Cumani’s only runner at York today.
PLACED – Back Erik The Red (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Bet here:
Back Fallen For A Star (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Skybet (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Bet here:
3.25: Gimcrack Stakes
A 6 furlong Group 2 for juveniles and it looks a cracking race. Blue Point is the short priced favourite for Godolphin having won twice and finishing 2nd in Group 2, whilst Mokarris and the unbeaten Mubtasim are the 2 dangers in the eyes of the bookies.
However, the one I like at a double figure price is Dream Of Dreams from a stable that has won this race 3 times in the last 11 years. He’s a horse that will appreciate any ease in the ground and he’s better than the bare form figures suggest. He nearly ran down a warm favourite on his debut when finishing from another parish before being stepped up in distance to today’s trip of 6 furlong. He won well at Haydock, outbattling the runner up, but, for me, is best judged on his 3rd to Medicine Jack in the Group 2 Railway Stakes at the Curragh. He broke incredibly slowly and used up a lot of energy early on to get back on terms. He never got any cover either, meaning he ran a bit keen, but only gave way deep inside the final furlong. He has some fancy entries including the Middle Park and the Dewhurst, underlining the fact that connections believe he’s a Group 1 performer in waiting. Quotes of 12/1 are too big in my eyes and I’m happy to get involved.
Back Dream Of Dreams (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Bet here:
4.00: Ebor Handicap
7/1 the field in a very open looking renewal of the 1 mile 6 furlong Ebor handicap, with 20 runners doing battle. In these types of races, I’m looking for a horse in form that is on the upgrade, and one which the handicapper may not have caught up with just yet. To my eye, there are 2 such types.
She Is No Lady is the first of my selections here, a 4 year old from Ralph Beckett’s yard with Dettori taking over in the saddle. She’s only run 11 times, winning 3 and only finishing out of the first 2 on 4 occasions. She’s raced 3 times this season with form figures of 2-1-2. On her seasonal reappearance, she just failed over a mile and a half before winning very well when stepped up to this trip on the all weather. Her last run was in listed company where she was short headed by Sandro Botticelli over 2 miles. That run was very decent as the 2 horses immediately behind her that day have raced 3 times since, winning a listed race in France and runner up twice in a pair of Group 2 events. There’s no form to rival that in this field. Admittedly, she’s rising the weights but I don’t believe she’s stopped improving. Provided the ground stays on the easy side and there’s a decent pace to chase, she surely won’t be out of the shake up.
The 2nd selection is Shrewd from the small stable of Iain Jardine. The trainer is in good form, with 5 of his 18 runners winning and his only runner this week at York finishing a close 2nd in another competitive handicap. Shrewd may be a 6 year old but it’s only this year that he’s come into his own. He’s won 3 of 5 over hurdles and, on the flat, he’s finished 1-5-1-5. 2 starts ago, he trotted up in a Class 3 here at York off a mark of 89. He’s now 11lb higher but an excellent 7lb claimer takes off the majority of that weight rise. Last time out, off 96, he finished 5th here in a listed race. That day, he was 3.5 lengths behind Barsanti and 1.5 lengths behind Quest For More off level weights. Barsanti has since won a handicap here off 105 and Quest For More has won a Group 2. He’s one of very few that has proven form here and he looks good value to fight out the finish.
Back She Is No Lady (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
Bet here:
PLACED – Back Shrewd (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 William Hill (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
Bet here:
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