Day 2 of York’s Ebor meeting and the girls take centre stage for the Yorkshire Oaks, with Aiden O’Brien fielding a particularly strong hand. The rest of the card doesn’t offer up much in the way of genuine betting opportunities, bar the 1 mile handicap in the race before the big one.
3.05: Clipper Stakes Handicap
Class 2, 1 mile handicap with 20 runners facing the starter. Due to the turning track, I’m looking for a horse that has a decent low draw and can grab an early position. 4 of the first 7 in the market are drawn 15 or higher and 2 of the other 3 are drawn 1 and 2 which, again, can be a nightmare if they don’t break on terms.
I’m looking at some of the bigger priced horses for my bets here and the 2 in question are track specialist, Alfred Hutchinson, and fellow 8 year old, Dinkum Diamond. The first named loves this track having won here twice and finished 2nd a further 3 times. His record over this course and distance is impressive with finishing positions of 1-4-5-4-1-9-2-0. He was 3rd in this last year over 3lb lower and, despite his advancing years, he still retains plenty of ability. He’s one of 5 in the race for David O’Meara, and has a handy draw in 6. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t in the shake up coming up the straight.
Dinkum Diamond is slightly less obvious and is drawn well in 4. Interestingly, she’s never run at 1 mile so this bet hinges on him needing this trip which I think is possible. What I do like is the stable’s decent form, the jockey booking of Oisin Murphy and his record on good to firm ground in big field handicaps. With 17+ runners facing the starter on firmish ground, his record reads 3-5-0-4-4-0, all at very healthy prices. Indeed, one of those runs was as recent as May where he finished 4th in the Victoria Cup. He didn’t look a step up in trip was needed but remember Ascot is a stiff track and 7 furlong races are on the straight track. A turning flat track will help. It might be a stab in the dark but 50/1 is a price I’m happy to take.
Back Alfred Hutchinson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 Coral (¼ odds 1-4 BOG)
Bet here:
Back Dinkum Diamond (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-4 BOG)
Bet here:
3.40: Yorkshire Oaks
12 runners for this 1 mile 4 furlong Group 1, with O’Brien responsible for ⅓ of the field, and 3 of the front 5 in the market. Found is the favourite trading at around 2/1 and brings the most solid form to the table but she has a touch of seconditis and that’s enough for me to look elsewhere.
In theory, her stablemate Seventh Heaven should be the biggest danger off the back of her easy win in the Irish Oaks but I’m prepared to take a chance on the 4th horse that day, Turret Rocks, from the Jim Bolger yard. She was 8 lengths back that day but didn’t settle and, in honesty, didn’t like the ground. She’s a true top of the ground performer and, after looking like a top class 2 year old (winning the May Hill and runner up in the Marcel Boussac), she’s not really had conditions to suit this term.
She ran well in 6th in the 1000 Guineas when needing further but that was her reappearance and the ground again wasn’t fast enough. A no show following in the Oaks but that can easily be dismissed due to the undulations of the track and the soft ground. Her stable has to be feared and I believe that 25/1 is way too big a price for a horse that finally has her conditions. The track and the ground will be perfect and, if she can reproduce last season’s form, she’ll be bang in the mix.
Back Turret Rocks (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3 BOG)
Bet here:
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