The fourth and final World Golf Championship event of 2016 takes place this week when many of the stars of the golfing world descend on China for the HSBC Champions event, a tournament which originally had the champions around the world in it but has now been modified to make up a field of 78 players.
Stars of the PGA Tour, the European Tour and the Asian Tour will all head to China for what should be a good week of golf with plenty of world ranking points up for grabs and loads more dollars for the select field.
Recent Winners
2015 – Russell Knox
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – Dustin Johnson
2012 – Ian Poulter
2011 – Martin Kaymer
2010 – Francesco Molinari
2009 – Phil Mickelson
The Course
Once again we head to Sheshan International Golf Club in Shanghai this week. This course has held the tournament every year of its existence apart from 2012 when Mission Hills took up the hosting duties.
In terms of the bare numbers this course is a par 72 which measures 7,266 yards but some of it is uphill so it plays a little longer than that. Length can be an advantage on some of the holes but accuracy is the key necessity around here. This is very much a course for hitting tight fairways and relatively small greens.
Most of the greens on the course are protected by bunkers and there is water in play on a number of the holes too which further adds to the need to be accurate. Good scramblers may well have an advantage here but it is a good all-round test of golf which a tournament like this needs.
The Field
As the name of the tournament eludes to this is a really strong field even if it is a shortened one. All four major champions – Danny Willett, Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson and Jimmy Walker – tee it up this week as do global superstars Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed and Bubba Watson.
Former champions Russell Knox and Martin Kaymer are in the field as is last week’s CIMB Classic winner Justin Thomas. There is also a first appearance in the tournament for the fans favourite Andrew Johnston. Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama are among plenty of other star attractions lining up.
Market Leaders
It is Rory McIlroy who has the honour of heading the betting in the absence of Jason Day and Jordan Spieth this week. He is a best priced 11/2 to back up his win in the Tour Championship with another one here. He showed excellent form at the Ryder Cup and he’s probably the one to beat although in this company he’s plenty short enough.
Dustin Johnson is the next best at 13/2. He is a former winner around here and is playing now much better than he ever has when arriving here so on paper that gives him a leading chance. How much he has left after a huge year would be a question over him though.
Last week’s runner up in the CIMB Classic, Hideki Matsuyama is next in the betting at 22/1 alongside The Open champion Henrik Stenson. Matsuyama is clearly in good form but doesn’t win enough to justify his price in my opinion while Stenson’s injury continues to restrict my faith in backing him.
Adam Scott and Paul Casey will both begin the week as 25/1 shots. Casey is fast coming into the Matsuyama mould in that he doesn’t convert enough chances to justify this price while Scott wasn’t at his best last week. It is 30/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
I’m going with three main bets this week and they all come from the European Tour. There’s no massive reason for that apart from the European Tour is in full swing while the big stars of the PGA Tour may not have played for near on a month.
My first pick is a former winner around here in Martin Kaymer. Kaymer won when he was right at the very top of his game but even when he was in decline he still managed to be competitive on this golf course so there is clearly something about it that he likes.
Kaymer heads into this week with 11 top 20 finishes in his last 13 tournaments with the two he didn’t make the top 20 in being majors so he is clearly in fine fettle at the minute and on a course he has results of 6, 30, 1, 8, 6 and 30 on he has to be in any betting line up this week especially at an inflated 40/1.
Alex Noren is a winning machine at the minute and I’m not deserting him while he is this hot especially on a rare week where we can get him at a crazy price like he is this week. The Swede is a greens in regulation machine and we saw in London two weeks ago just how well he is playing.
Noren has three top 10 finishes in the China Open so we know he can cope in Asian conditions. Since a ninth placed finish in that tournament this year he’s won three times and nearly won a fourth. He’s in sensational form and with his ability to find greens in the right number I’m expecting him to be right there this week.
My last main pick is on the man who was Noren’s closest challenger at the British Masters two weeks ago in Bernd Wiesberger. In his last four tournaments the Austrian has finished no worse than seventh and that includes runner up finishes in London and in the KLM Open. I watched Wiesberger for a round at the British Masters and his course management there was very impressive as was his long game.
I read on the European Tour website a few quotes from Wiesberger suggesting that the course suits his eye and that he is looking forward to the week which is a positive. On a course where putting isn’t the hardest given the number of greens Wiesberger finds in the right number he should be fully capable of building on the tied for 17th he was in last year.
Outsiders
My first outsider is an absolute no brainer in Alex Levy. Levy’s record in China is something else so he clearly likes it in this nation. In the China Open, Levy has a win, a third place and a 28th placed finish in three starts and he was also fourth in the Shenzhen International earlier this year too. In his only entry into this tournament he finished in the top 15 and he has a runner up in the BMW Masters too so it is absolutely fair to say Levy loves China.
He probably loves golf as a whole right now too having won the shortened event in Germany last month and then followed that up with a creditable run in the British Masters where even an average first round would have seen him contend even stronger than he did. Even then he finished in the top five so he’s playing great golf and has to be overpriced at 90/1 this week.
My final pick is a bit more of a risky one but the form of Richard Sterne has caught my eye this month. He had good runs in the Alfred Dunhill Links and the British Masters to follow up what has actually been a decent season for the South African when you consider the depths his game had sadly sunk to over the last couple of years.
Those two recent runs have taken Sterne up to eight top 15 finishes on the European Tour this year with greens in regulation being a key reason why he has so many good finishes. With putting less of an issue this week the South African is worth a punt at a ridiculous 175/1.
Tips
Back M.Kaymer to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with NetBet (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back A.Noren to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back B.Wiesberger to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back them here:
Back A.Levy to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back R.Sterne to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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