The DP World Tour leaves one famous venue for another one this week as the Irish Open takes place at The K Club, a venue which has held some of the biggest events in the sport and which gets the focus all to itself.
Adrian Meronk was going to get a lot of attention this week after missing out on the Ryder Cup team but as the defending champion he will get even more of it. He is here to defend and might well have a point to prove.
Recent Winners
2022 – Adrian Meronk
2021 – Lucas Herbert
2020 – John Catlin
2019 – Jon Rahm
2018 – Russell Knox
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Rory McIlroy
2015 – Soren Kjeldsen
2014 – Mikko Ilonen
2013 – Paul Casey
The Course
Meronk will attempt to defend the title on a different course to the one which he won on last year. That is because the tournament returns to The K Club for the first time since 2016. The course is a par 72 which stretches to 7,441 although there is a bit of a heatwave over in the UK and Ireland so the ball might fly a little further which could help the shorter hitters be a part of the competition. The course finishes with two par 5s in the last three holes so much can change late on here.
The last three winners around here have all led the field in greens in regulation so that seems like a pretty good place to start when looking to find the winner. Accuracy off the tee hasn’t been as much of a factor in the past but there were relatively new trees planted here which were starting to grow for the 2016 event and they should be more in play here so it might be that accuracy is a factor. Distance isn’t that important either based on past events.
The Field
September is always a big month on the DP World Tour and it begins with a great field in Ireland where we have eight members of the top 50 in the world rankings including the one they will all be here to see in Rory McIlroy. The world number two won this tournament the last time it was here so he could be classed as the defending champion. Two other members of the Europe team that will line up in Rome at the end of the month are here too in Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry.
Five real stars make up those who are in the top 50 in the world and they include Adam Scott. The other four are Ryan Fox, Min Woo Lee, Tom Hoge and Billy Horschel. There are nine other players ranked in the top 100 including the defending champion Adrian Meronk as well as the likes of Pablo Larrazabal, Alexander Bjork, Thomas Detry, Jordan Smith, Aaron Rai, Adrian Otaegui, Thorbjorn Olesen and Rasmus Hojgaard. This is a really good field.
Market Leaders
When you consider his status on the DP World Tour and world golf as a whole, you’d have to say that Rory McIlroy has no better than an indifferent record in this tournament. He won it the last time it was here in 2016 but he has played the tournament 13 times and that was his sole win. He has five missed cuts as well so just because he is the standout player whenever he tees it up and the beneficiary of home support, it doesn’t always equate to success. He feels a bit short at 7/2.
Tyrrell Hatton usually shows his worth when he comes and tees it up on the DP World Tour and he is 10/1 to win this tournament. He was fifth around here in 2016 but he has missed the cut the three times he has played the event since then. Hatton is looking to build up his form going into the Ryder Cup and is usually a machine with the irons into the greens. He is still a little on the shorter side in a field with this depth but I do prefer him to McIlroy but not enough to back him.
Min Woo Lee and Adam Scott come next in the betting at 20/1 and you would imagine if this turns into a ball striking paradise the latter in particular has every right to be in the mix. That isn’t to say that Min Woo Lee can’t be competitive. Min Woo Lee has teed it up in this tournament three times without being competitive and is a little too hit or miss for my liking. Scott will be teeing it up at this event for the first time since 2002 but finishes of T10-T6-T27 suggest he’ll be just fine. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss him too quickly.
Interestingly the only other players in the field who are shorter than 33/1 are the home player Shane Lowry and the defending champion Adrian Meronk. Many think that it was Lowry who was picked ahead of Meronk for the Ryder Cup team. The former has to prove he deserves his wildcard while the latter will be out to show that Donald made the wrong decision. Lowry had his breakthrough in this event when he won it in 2009. He has another top 10 and a bunch of top 25s but his form is to be questioned. Meronk had a top 10 before his win last year so both could be considered.
Main Bets
With this being the only tournament of the week and a pretty big one on the DP World Tour at that I’m going to allow myself an extra main bet and outsider this week. The first main bet that I like is Yannik Paul. Paul has been one of the better players at this level over the last 11 months. That started with a win in Mallorca and he had successive weeks in February where he was second in Thailand and India. He arrives with three top 10s and two top 25s in his last seven starts and all of this is done off the back of being sat 11 in GIR on the DP World Tour and second in strokes gained on approach. Given the success of iron players previously here the German looks to tick too many boxes not to be on the staking plan.
The second part of the staking plan is another renowned star iron player in Antoine Rozner, a player who sits at 28 on the DP World Tour for strokes gained on approach which improves to sixth for GIR. He ranked inside the top 20 in GIR in Switzerland last week and a look at his results suggests he is ticking and ready to pounce. He comes into this event off the back of three successive top 25 finishes and you feel he just needs that monster round to get right into contention. Rozner is a player who has won on the DP World Tour and this tournament comes at a good time. He was T13 in Ireland last year and I expect better from him here.
The final main bet I have is Tom Hoge, a player who we don’t very often see over in this part of the world for a regular event so that might be a tip in itself. Hoge ranked fifth on the entire PGA Tour last season for strokes gained on approach and I’ve mentioned copious times in this preview already that the statistic is so important around here. Usually he would be disadvantaged by a lack of course knowledge on a regular event on the schedule but nobody has played competitively here since 2016 so there is a lot in the field who will be teeing it up here for the first time. That makes me think the iron play of Hoge could be significant and if it is he’s a big price in this company.
Outsiders
Given that Eddie Pepperell sits fourth on the DP World Tour for strokes gained on approach to the green he is a pretty obvious bet this week. That is even more the case when you consider that he arrives here with top 10s in two of his last three starts. The other one in between was in the Czech Masters where the bombers had their fun and Pepperell will never really be suited by those sorts of tests. Pepperell has three previous top 10 finishes in the Irish Open including here in 2016 and given that he looks to be finding his form again after a barren period since the pandemic he looks an easy outsider bet.
Connor Syme led the field for strokes gained on approach in Switzerland last week on his way to finishing in a tie for third. That comes off the back of a tie for fourth in Northern Ireland the start before so the Scot is clearly in a rich vein of form at the minute and if he has that iron play with him here then he is entitled to be a factor in this tournament as well. Those two top 10s recently were the second and third he has got on the DP World Tour this season and given the form he is in he feels overpriced.
Ross Fisher has won this tournament in the past and he has three other top 10 finishes in it so he is very comfortable playing his golf in Ireland and he might well be able to get himself into contention here. Three starts ago he finished in the top 10 in Denmark and then started the Scottish Open with a 66 before the conditions turned and he was found out but things should be nice and calm this week so that shouldn’t be an issue. Fisher sits third on strokes gained on approach this season on the DP World Tour and third in greens in regulation as well so he is going to pass the iron play test. If the rest of his game comes alive he could outrun his price in a big way.
Tips
Back Y.Paul to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Rozner to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back E.Pepperell to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Hoge to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back C.Syme to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back R.Fisher to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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