The point scoring for the European team for the Ryder Cup in 2023 began on the DP World Tour last week and this week the roadshow heads to the course which will host the famous competition when the Italian Open gets played out.
Nicolai Hojgaard enjoyed his first taste of the Ryder Cup course a year ago when he rocked up and left with the title and the Dane is in the field looking to make a successful defence of the crown. He’ll need to beat a better field to do so though.
Recent Winners
2021 – Nicolai Hojgaard
2020 – Ross McGowan
2019 – Bernd Wiesberger
2018 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Francesco Molinari
2015 – Rikard Karlberg
2014 – Hennie Otto
2013 – Julien Quesne
2012 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
The Course
We are at the Marco Simone Golf Club in Rome this week. This will be the third time this course has staged the event but it was a different course last year from the only other time it played host. The Ryder Cup doesn’t go to average golf courses so we knew without seeing it in play that it would be a belter. It was and you would imagine that it will play well this week as it looks to showcase what we can expect in 12 months when Europe and USA go at it here.
The course is a par 71 with three par fives and the full complement of par threes. It measures 7,268 yards and is said to have a number of doglegs on it which would immediately lessen the impact of the bigger hitters – very much in Europe’s favour next year. There isn’t a course in Italy where you don’t need to drive the ball well to be successful and this fits that mould. We’re looking for solid drivers of the ball. The greens aren’t the easiest to find though so solid approach play is also required.
The Field
Whether it is the fact that the top players in Europe will be battling for the Ryder Cup here next year or the upside of the ongoing golf war with LIV I’m not sure but there are three standout players in the field this week in Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland and the US Open champion Matthew Fitzpatrick. They will all be at the Ryder Cup next year you would imagine, as will Tyrrell Hatton and potentially Adrian Meronk who are both in the field.
Former champion Francesco Molinari will look to deliver in front of his adoring public once again while others with their eye on the prize include Robert MacIntyre, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Hojgaard, the defending champion Nicolai Hojgaard, Victor Perez, Aaron Rai and Adri Arnaus, the latter five of whom could easily be representing Europe here under Luke Donald in 12 months. Guido Migliozzi joins Molinari in heading up the home charge.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is in great form and heads here no bigger than 15/4 to win the tournament a week after just failing to chase Shane Lowry down in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. I was worried there that his self-appointed spokesperson for the good of golf could go against him but that wasn’t the case and with the LIV players playing their own event this week that shouldn’t be an issue here. One thing which might be though is that he plays here for the first time but nobody else is here for any more than a second time. Rory is a worthy favourite.
Matthew Fitzpatrick should be licking his lips at the course that is in front of him this week because you would think it suits his skillset perfectly. The US Open champion is 10/1 to waltz off with the title this week but he has understandably gone a little quite since he won at Brookline and missed the cut here last year. He was well down the field last week so it might be that a long season is beginning to catch up with the Englishman.
Viktor Hovland is a couple of points bigger for the title at 12/1 this week and he is another who you would imagine will be licking his lips at the test that awaits him. He failed to convert the 18 hole lead at Wentworth last week but that tournament got pretty weird fairly quickly with the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. A slightly bigger negative would be that he is on debut here but his approach play should lap this course up and he’s a real threat.
Tyrrell Hatton is the only other player in the field that is shorter than 25/1. The 2017 winner of this title is 22/1 but obviously that was won on a different track to here. His form has been a little bit of a concern all year really with just one top 10 finish since the World Matchplay back in March. It needed a final round of 64 at the Wyndham for that. He is another here for the first time but of the big three teeing it up on debut here he’s the easiest to dismiss in his present form.
Main Bets
Francesco Molinari was one of the best golfers in the world three or four years ago and while things have gone a little pear-shaped since then there have been signs in the last month or two that he might be returning to the consistent game which saw him win plenty of events in that two-year period and on home soil I fancy him to go well again this week. The BMW PGA Championship was his first tournament since The Open and he put up a perfectly acceptable challenge when you consider he could have been a little rusty and that makes me think in front of a home crowd the former champion could be a factor here. The only thing that let Molinari down last week was the putter so if he can get that warmed up a little then on a course I’m assuming he’ll be familiar with, Molinari can get back to where we expect a player of his class to be with a win this week.
Fabrizio Zanotti is another who has caught my eye recently. I get the impression he is about to start contending again him. He is a wonderful player from tee to green and has shown some solid play around them in recent times and that has led to him arriving here with three top 20 finishes in succession to go with the top 10s at the British Masters and Irish Open. They were both on elite level courses much like this tournament is so that is very much a positive. In a top field at the BMW PGA last week the Paraguayan ranked 13 for strokes gained tee to green and 11 on approach. The week before in Denmark he ranked 16 for strokes gained around the green and so if he can put the two together he shouldn’t be far away here.
Outsiders
I don’t know how welcome Adrian Otaegui is at this tournament but the fact he plays here rather than at the LIV event is a feather in his cap I guess. He is one LIV player who despite the angst has managed to remain relatively competitive when he has teed it up on the DP World Tour and this should be a decent course for him too. Otaegui was third at the Hero Open and T13 at Wentworth last week with his long game being as immaculate as always. His short game has come to the fore in recent times too so it might be that competing with the elite stars LIV have has raised that side of his game. Whatever it is the Spaniard is in good form and looks overpriced at 66/1 on this test.
Max Kieffer was a surprise winner of the Czech Masters as most would have expected his debut DP World Tour win to come on a tighter track where accuracy had more of a premium than length, a course a little like this one but the fact he won in the Czech Republic makes me think he could go very well here. The German made the cut at the BMW PGA last week but wasn’t a feature there although shooting 71 in the opening round he probably knew winning was a pipedream from there so it might be that he went through the motions. Kieffer has had a decent time in the scrambling ranks recently so if his short game remains on fire and his usual long game levels at with him he has every chance of going well here.
Tips
Back F.Molinari to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back F.Zanotti to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Otaegui to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Kieffer to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
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