The DP World Tour stages another historic tournament this week when we head to Milan for the Italian Open, an event which has had a decent profile in recent years due to it being played on the course which was used for the Ryder Cup in 2023.
Adrian Meronk was the last winner of this title but now that he has defected to the LIV Tour he won’t be around to make a defence of his crown so we are guaranteed a different winner and that will come on a new course too.
Recent Winners
2023 – Adrian Meronk
2022 – Robert MacIntyre
2021 – Nicolai Hojgaard
2020 – Ross McGowan
2019 – Bernd Wiesberger
2018 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Francesco Molinari
2015 – Rikard Karlberg
2014 – Hennie Otto
The Course
We move to the Adriatic Golf Club Cervia this week for the tournament. This is a resort with three nine hole golf courses on it and two of them are put together to make up the 18 that will be used for this event. The combined course becomes a par 71 which measures 6,989 yards so it is anything but a monster in terms of length so you would imagine that we are going to be in for a low scoring week even allowing for the new nature of the course at this level.
There isn’t a huge amount to go by in terms of a profile for this place but there is an interview with Matteo Manassero on the DP World Tour website where he suggested that the fairways are hard to find here and the greens are small. He did suggest that it would be a week for aggressive play and making a lot of birdies though so you would imagine that the rough isn’t going to be that penal or that he has seen a soft golf course.
The Field
With the countdown to The Open starting to warm up it is understandable that the leading players on the DP World Tour have their attention elsewhere this week. We actually don’t have a single player in the top 100 in the world rankings on show in this tournament. Patrick Reed is the highest ranked player in the field and he is 102 in the standings so we would have to suggest that as fields go this is not one of the strongest the DP World Tour has had this season.
We do however have four men in the top 10 in the Race to Dubai standings who are in the field this week. The leader of those is Rikuya Hoshino who sits at four in those rankings with Jesper Svensson, Guido Migliozzi and Laurie Canter the other three players who will be looking to make a big move here. Home star Matteo Manassero, Adrian Otaegui, Darius van Driel, Zander Lombard and Tom McKibbin are all in the top 20 in the season rankings and can move up the list with a good week here.
Market Leaders
Patrick Reed is the highest ranked player in the field in terms of world rankings and he is a 14/1 favourite to justify that ranking and go on and win the title. You would imagine with him unable to get world ranking points on the LIV Tour that he would take this week very seriously with the points it provides. If this turns into a short game, putting shootout then you would think the American would go really well but a lack of competitive golf with jeopardy puts me off getting involved with him at the price.
Tom McKibbin continues to threaten to add to his sole DP World Tour title and is 16/1 to double his tally in this tournament. The 21-year-old has three top 10 finishes in his last five starts so he has the form to go well here but I always think he will be better on courses where his length can come into play and it doesn’t sound like that is the case here. He went well in the Dutch Open last week though so shouldn’t be ruled out but the price doesn’t reel me in.
Bernd Wiesberger is next in the betting at 18/1. I still maintain that if he is anywhere near his best he could lead these a merry dance and there are certainly signs that he is getting back to that level off the back of successive top 10 finishes. He won this tournament, albeit on a different track, five years ago so he has good memories of this event which could be no bad thing for him. I’m tempted to get involved in him here but I just want him to threaten to win once more before I pull the trigger.
Guido Migliozzi and Laurie Canter have both won tournaments recently and they are 22/1 to add this one to their collection. Migliozzi won just last week but I always think that is a negative even though he will have plenty of motivation to win in front of his own fans. Canter came out on top in the European Open and he went well enough at the KLM Open last week to suggest that he isn’t done with winning yet. I’m not convinced this will be his week though.
Main Bets
I like a couple of value picks this week as my main bets. Matteo Manassero has already been good to me this season as I was on him when he landed the Jonsson Workwear Open back in March and with knowledge of the course the Italian could have a bit of an advantage here. He won’t lack for crowd support either which is never a bad thing, especially for a player who has missed this event recently after dropping off the circuit. He arrives here off the back of two top 10s and another top 15 in the seven starts since he won in South Africa and as a straight hitter of the ball should go very well here.
Another player who has been good to me this season is Riyuka Hoshino and I think he is a decent price to go in again here. He is the leading player on the Race to Dubai standings this week which shows that he is the best player on the season who is teeing it up. He won in Qatar with a long game that was just immaculate and if he has that with him this week then he is going to be a contender for sure.
Outsiders
I’ll take a couple of straight hitters off the tee as outside bets this week. Fabrizio Zanotti sits at 12 on the DP World Tour for fairways hit this season so if anyone is going to hit the short grass this week it is likely to be the Paraguayan. He doesn’t have a huge amount of form to speak of but we should remember that he is a fairly short hitter and a lot of the recent events have been on courses where you have to get it out there. That doesn’t appear to be the case here so his accuracy should have some weight this week. With that in mind I’ll take the South American to deliver his best showing of the season.
James Morrison is actually in the top five in the fairways hitting category on the tour this season and that should set him up nicely into these holes where the greens are smaller than usual. He doesn’t have a terrible short game either so this should be a course which fits quite nicely for him. Morrison arrives here off the back of a top 15 finish at the KLM Open last week where he would have been much closer but for a horror third round. Four starts prior to that he was inside the top 11 in Japan with four decent rounds. If he has four good rounds here he shouldn’t be far away.
Tips
Back M.Manassero to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Hoshino to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back F.Zanotti to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Morrison to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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