Italian Open Golf – Tournament Outright Betting Preview

The focus for the European Tour is on Italy this week as the 73rd Italian Open takes place in Milan. With no PGA Tour event this week this is the only major tour operating so this tournament has a really good spot in the calendar.

As such a pretty strong field has been assembled on a golf course which offers something for everyone which should make for an intriguing week.

Recent Winners

2015 – Rikard Karlberg

2014 – Hennie Otto

2013 – Julien Quesne

2012 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

2011 – Robert Rock

2010 – Fredrik Andersson Hed

2009 – Daniel Vancsik

2008 – Hennie Otto

2007 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

2006 – Francesco Molinari

The Course

For the second successive year the Golf Club Milano is the host venue for this tournament. It is a treelined course with small greens and average sized fairways so hitting the ball cleanly is essential around here.

The course is made up of two nine hole tracks and the major change from last year is that the par has come down one to 71. The course measures 7,156 yards so it isn’t the longest by any means but with doglegs on some of the holes getting it out there without being too wayward is the way forward.

With that in mind I’m looking for good drivers of the ball who find lots of greens. I’m not necessarily worried about putting form as these greens are pretty small so finding them will give those of all putting abilities a chance to make birdies.

The Field

There is a strong field on show this week headed by the defending champion Rikard Karlberg. Opposing him are no fewer than three recent champions in Julien Quesne, Robert Rock and Francesco Molinari.

There are also seven members of Darren Clarke’s Ryder Cup side in the field this week with Martin Kaymer, Danny Willett, Lee Westwood, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Andy Sullivan and Chris Wood finishing their preparations for Hazeltine in the Italian city.

Last week’s winner Joost Luiten, last season’s rookie of the year Byeong-Hun An and form men Scott Hend and David Lipsky will also be on the first tee on Thursday.

Market Leaders

Martin Kaymer only lost here in a playoff last year and will begin this week as the 12/1 favourite. Having not won for a while I’m not sure I can be backing him at that price but he is often in the mix when he tees it up so it might well appeal for some.

Byeong-Hun An is the 18/1 second favourite. He finished fast last week and will be eyeing up a first European Tour title of the year to go with his win at Wentworth last year. He looks a real danger heading in as well.

Last week’s winner Joost Luiten is the third favourite at 20/1. There are videos of him celebrating that success on twitter, and nobody can blame him for that, but it does put me off taking him this week even though in theory this course should suit him.

Ryder Cup quartet Danny Willett, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Rafael Cabrera Bello and Lee Westwood are all priced between 20/1 and 25/1 this week and all could take this down if they are on form but with their eyes on two weeks time they are not for me.

It is 28/1 bar those named in one of those really competitive European Tour weeks where the field has enough depth that nobody really stands out too much.

Main Bets

I’m only having the one main bet this week. A lot of those at the head of the betting don’t really interest me too much and I think this is a week for seeking out some value but I can’t ignore a go at one for a main bet.

The man in question is Byeong-Hun An. I’ve a feeling this course will play similar to Wentworth. The defending champion here Karlberg finished second at Wentworth earlier this year so the similarity is in place and if I’m right then An has to have every chance this week given how he destroyed the Surrey track last season.

We know the Korean is such a good driver of the golf ball and we also know off the back of his final round in Holland last week that the rest of his game is in pretty good nick too. It was only a slow second round which cost him pushing for the win last week but if he can find four consistent rounds here he should be right in the mix.

Outsiders

As it is the only tournament this week I’m going to go with four outsiders, each of whom I think are overpriced and should give off good performances. I’m largely going for greens in regulation hitters although there are a couple of form men in there too.

One of those form men is Tommy Fleetwood. He happens to be a greens in regulation hitter too. Fleetwood has really found his ball striking in recent weeks and a top 10 finish in Holland last week was probably the worst he could have done having holed little. I’ve already mentioned how I don’t see putting as a big issue this week so if the Englishman can continue to strike it well he’ll have every chance here.

This has the feel of a course that should suit the excellent driving ability of Thorbjorn Olesen. He might not be in the best of form but he tends to go well on certain types of courses and having delivered places for me in Qatar and Germany this season already I’m not going to desert him now.

I’m not surprised the Dane has struggled recently because he’s been playing on some tight courses which haven’t really suited him but he can let the driver fly a little more this week and that should suit him. If it does he’ll make his 100/1 price look big pretty quickly.

Joakim Lagergren has found some form recently with a top five where he looked very good in Denmark and a top 20 finish last week and he returns to the scene of where he finished in a lengthy tie for third last year. Lagergren finished that tournament with a 63 so we don’t need to worry about him being able to tame the course. With the form he’s in he’s a no brainer to chance this week.

I’m also going to go back to my tried and trusted Frenchman Benjamin Hebert who I’m absolutely convinced will break through sooner rather than later. Hebert was 12^th at Wentworth which I think is significant and that was despite a poor first round. He goes into the week as the ninth best hitter of greens in regulation too so I’m expecting a decent week from the Frenchman here.

Tips

Back B-H.An to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)

PLACED – Back T.Fleetwood to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)

Back J.Lagergren to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)

Back B.Hebert to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)

Back them here:

Back T.Olesen to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-6)

Back him here:

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