A little more than three months after the previous season ended, the new campaign of Major League Soccer gets underway this weekend when 30 teams now line up looking to navigate their way through to win the MLS Cup at the end of the year.
That is exactly what the LA Galaxy did in November and they will be hoping to be the first team since themselves 13 years ago to retain the title. The format makes it harder though so that will give the other 29 teams hope that this could be their year.
Recent Winners
2024 – LA Galaxy
2023 – Columbus Crew
2022 – Los Angeles FC
2021 – New York City FC
2020 – Columbus Crew
2019 – Seattle Sounders
2018 – Atlanta United
2017 – Toronto FC
2016 – Seattle Sounders
2015 – Portland Timbers
The Format
After a year without one, we have a new team in the league this year which takes the total to 30. That means that we can have an even 15 in each Conference. Each team plays 34 matches in the regular season with Decision Day coming on October 18. We also have the same playoff system as last term. The top seven in each Conference once again automatically qualify for the postseason while the eighth and ninth team in each play a knockout match to complete the bracket. The first round of the playoffs is a best of three series with teams finishing first to fourth being at home in the first and third matches and the teams fifth and below at home in the second game. The teams who get two wins go through to the Conference semi-finals where they, the Conference finals and the MLS Cup Final are all one-leg knockout matches. MLS Cup Final takes place in late November or early December. The highest ranked team in the regular season is at home in all knockout matches.
The Champions
The champions in this competition are always disadvantaged as they are in all US sports with them getting the last draft pick and everything. LA Galaxy are the hunted team this year after they won MLS Cup last term. They have a few things to deal with. Riqui Puig won’t feature for the first half of the season at least while Dejan Joveljic has been allowed to leave for Sporting Kansas City and a couple of other injuries could upset the camp. They are 9/1 to do something which hasn’t been done for 13 years and retain the title but in the initial part of the season they have too much to contend with for my liking.
The Finalists
New York Red Bulls were the team who were beaten in the MLS Cup Final by the LA Galaxy last term and they will be looking to go one better this time around. They made one of the many eye catching signings in MLS in the off-season when Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting arrived at the club to replace the departed Dante Vanzeir. If he can combine well with the likes of Lewis Morgan and Emil Forsberg then this could be a good year for the Red Bulls, the entirety of whom are now being overlooked by Jurgen Klopp. One or two too many have departed for me to be confident enough to back the Red Bulls at 16/1 though.
Best of the Rest
Inter Miami were widely expected to win MLS Cup last season having signed the likes of Luis Suarez, Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba to join up with Lionel Messi but they didn’t have losing to Atlanta United in the best-of-three series in the playoffs in their script, especially after they won the Supporters’ Shield as easily as they did. Tata Martino has left to be replaced in the hotseat by Javier Mascherano but this is still a Miami squad that is too old to cope with the rigours of MLS and a Club World Cup campaign which presumably they will be eager to do well in given that they host the event. They are 4/1 favourites but aren’t for me.
Los Angeles FC would have been expected to go much deeper in the playoffs than they did last year with what was a pretty star-studded squad with the likes of Olivier Giroud joining halfway through the campaign. As ever when a period of dominance looks like coming to an end the squad gets split up though and some key men have departed this part of California which is a real concern. There is enough in LAFC to get into the playoffs again but they might need a decent summer in order to challenge for the title. They look a bit short at 7/1.
The Ohio pair of FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew come next in the betting at 12/1. Crew were the defending champions last season but bowed out in the first round of the playoffs but have lost a key man in Cucho Hernandez in the close season and it will be interesting to see who they replace him with. I never go against Wilfried Nancy in this part of the world but I’m not as cut up on the Crew going into the season as I have been in the past two. Cincinnati are a different proposition though even though they have allowed Lucho Acosta to go to FC Dallas. They have done some great work with the attacking part of their squad and if they maintain a defensive stability they should go very well.
The Contenders
We are into the 20/1 range for the contenders with Seattle Sounders on that price. They were another team who made the postseason last term but never delivered what they wanted to from it. The Sounders raided Dallas for Paul Arriola and Jesus Ferreira to deepen their attacking stock and they haven’t really weakened across the pitch anywhere in terms of players they would have been desperate to keep so it wouldn’t be a surprise if we see Seattle playing some good stuff when we get to November.
Atlanta United and Orlando City SC come next in the betting at 22/1. The former have employed former MLS Cup winning coach Ronny Deila and have certainly spent big in the off-season, reinvesting the funds they received for players who left last year. Orlando City have also made a couple of appealing signings too and they will fancy their chances of going very deep in the playoffs if they can avoid injuries, although the centre of the pitch does still need to be addressed before I have them as complete title contenders.
The New Boys
We have a new team in the league this year in the form of San Diego FC who will go into the Western Conference. They have been lined up for the league for a while so they should be ready for their MLS debut campaign and the eye catching signing of Chucky Lozano certainly ensures that they enter the league with some star quality. There is plenty of MLS experience in this squad and some stardust from elsewhere so for an expansion side they have given themselves the chance to emulate recent teams who have come into the league but the Western Conference does look tough this season.
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Outright Betting
The beauty of betting on the MLS outright market is you only need to find someone to finish in the top nine of a 15 team league for your bet to have a chance when the playoffs come around and that can lead us to outsiders having some joy and the one I really like this season is the San Jose Earthquakes. I expect a lot of improvement in the Earthquakes under Bruce Arena, who knows exactly how to turn teams around and be successful in MLS.
The addition of Chicho Arango from Real Salt Lake is a very appealing one. Putting him in an attacking outfit that includes potential MVP candidates Hernan Lopez and Cristian Espinoza should give the fireworks you need in MLS. Arena will bring a much better structure to the Earthquakes and he has brought a trio of defenders with plenty of MLS experience with him to San Jose. The 66/1 on them could look huge come playoff time.
Conference Betting
I’ll leave the Western Conference alone because we have San Jose covered in that and my Conference betting will turn to the Eastern Conference. Most markets are for the winner of the Eastern Conference as in the team who get to MLS Cup but if you have a Betfair or Paddy Power account you can actually get a market on who wins the Conference in the regular season or basically gets the number one seed and I like that market because you would think that Miami won’t be a factor because they begin the season targeting the Champions Cup and then halfway through it their attention will turn to the Club World Cup. I think Miami will be delighted to finish anywhere in the top seven and take their chances from there.
The team I like is Atlanta United who have done some decent work. Importantly, domestic competitions is the only thing that Atlanta have to worry about this season and they could steal a march on rivals Inter Miami, Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati while they are involved in Champions Cup action. Atlanta begin the season with six home matches in their opening eight games so they have a great chance to build up a head of steam and with Emmanuel Latte Lath likely to be full of goals and Miguel Almiron returning to add to the creative ranks in behind him a huge campaign for the Five Stripes is expected.
Top Scorer Betting
We move to the top scorer betting for the next outright market to look at with two players catching my eye, one who is a favourite and another who is a rank outsider whose price could look daft come Decision Day. The favourite I like is Kevin Denkey, the new recruit for FC Cincinnati. He brings a real goalscoring outlook to Ohio with him and with Cincy having recruited Evander, arguably the best creator in MLS, Denkey isn’t going to go short on chances. That is without other supply lines such as Luca Orellano among others. Cincinnati will want to score more goals this season and two years on from having three men challenging for the Golden Boot, I expect Denkey to be in there here too.
I’ll also take a flying punt at Diego Rossi at 125/1. You would imagine that Columbus Crew will replace Cucho Hernandez at some point but whoever comes in will need time to acclimatise and familiarise himself with MLS so there is a chance that Rossi could be the main man in the absence of the Colombian star. Rossi bagged 12 goals last season when playing a reserved role behind Cucho so if he is further forward you could easily see him pushing the 20 goal mark which is often competitive for the Golden Boot. He notched 17 goals in a season for LAFC so he has previous when being on the front line in MLS and if he can stay there long enough he could be a very daft price as the regular season draws to a close.
Other Markets
There is one other outright market I want to target and again that takes us to Betfair where they go 15/8 about Austin FC to finish in the top seven of the Western Conference. If you wanted a safer play you can get 10/11 about them finishing in the top nine but I’m prepared to take the bigger price. Austin FC finished in tenth last season so for the top seven bet to land you need them to improve by three spots but you have to think Portland, who finished ninth, could struggle without Evander this term while Real Salt Lake and Houston Dynamo have huge potential for downturns after losing key players.
Austin have also lost a key player in Sebastian Driussi but he was always going to leave anyway. What they have done is used the money they got to invest fairly big in their squad. They have recruited three DPs including Brandon Vazquez who should score a lot of goals in this league once again. Osman Bukari comes with a decent reputation too and the rest of the roster has been improved too. If there is a doubt for me it is with coach Nico Estevez who really struggled in the end at Dallas but just across the state he has a squad to push for a top seven finish at a solid price.
Tips
Back San Jose Earthquakes to win MLS Cup (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back Atlanta United to win Eastern Conference (excluding playoffs) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Betfair
Back K.Denkey Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
Back D.Rossi Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
Back Austin Top Seven Finish in Western Conference for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with Betfair
