The last two champions of the NatWest T20 Blast meet in the opening semi-final of this year’s tournament as the Birmingham Bears take on the Northamptonshire Steelbacks on Saturday morning for a place in the final at Edgbaston on Saturday evening.
Birmingham are defending the title this season, a title which has never been defended in the history of the competition. Northants won the title at Edgbaston in 2013 and will be eyeing up another triumph so this is set up to be a classic semi-final.
Birmingham made it to their second successive finals day by virtue of being far too good for a woeful Essex in the quarter final. Prior to that they had topped the North Group so they are defending their title with confidence and high quality cricket but this is where the going gets really tough now.
Northants thrashed Sussex in the quarter final to move to their second finals day in three years and they will be desperate to win back the title. They were third in the North Group earlier in the competition which wasn’t a bad effort when you consider three north sides have made it to the big day.
Birmingham topped the group with the help of Brendon McCullum in their squad for the second half of the campaign but he won’t be around on finals day. The Bears do have Ian Bell returning from international duty though and he could be important while Chris Woakes is allowed to play before he heads off on England commitments.
Northants are still hoping to secure a deal to bring Shahid Afridi back for finals day. That is because Steven Crook is a significant injury doubt which is less than ideal. David Willey is likely to be playing his last games for the club here as he heads off to Yorkshire next season and England duty is likely to deprive him of county action for much of the rest of the season.
These two fantastic sides have already met twice in this competition this season. Birmingham won by five wickets in their first meetings while their second one went the way of the Bears too, that one by a solitary run. With those results in mind you can understand why the Bears are 4/6 favourites for this match but I fancy Northants to make it third time lucky here.
Nothing is expected of them and they can play with a fair amount of freedom. They bat a long way down and they bowl very tightly so they’re going to be hard to beat. I’m effectively on them at a decent price to win this match having backed them outright elsewhere before I started this blog so I’ve no need to back them again but I wouldn’t put anyone off backing them if they’re not on them already.
One bet I am very keen on in this semi-final is Northants to hit the most sixes. In their two matches in the group stages Northants won the sixes battle on both occasions to the tune of 5-2 and 7-2 and with no McCullum in the Bears line up you would think Northants would hit the most sixes here.
Not only do Northants have big hitters running right the way through their line up but they have an attack that is notoriously tough to smash away whereas Birmingham have a couple of bowlers that can be targeted but if David Willey gets going it won’t matter anyway as he’ll blast the Bears away. Odds against on Northamptonshire in the sixes market is just too big and I’m on to a big tune there.
I’m always sucker for a big priced top batsman in big matches because the top orders can make pigs ears of things. In the final last year Laurie Evans top scored down the order for the Bears and I wouldn’t be surprised if someone down the order does it again here given the quality of Northants’ new ball attack.
Chris Woakes was only two away from top scoring in the quarter final win over Essex and at 16/1 he looks to be decent value here. If Birmingham mess up at the top or get behind the rate someone down the order will get the licence to go big and that could be Woakes. The England man is worth a tiny stake to see how well he goes.
Back Northants Most 6s for a 6/10 stake at 2.10 with Betway
Back C.Woakes Top Birmingham Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Coral
Blog cricket YTD: -6.53pts
