Brendon McCullum will walk onto the field as an international player for the final time on Saturday when New Zealand and Australia meet in the second Test of their small series in Christchurch.
While emotions will be strong throughout this match, McCullum is a steely character who will want to bow out how he has played most of his career – on the attack and determined to win. Australia need to avoid defeat to become the world’s number one ranked Test team and secure the series so this one is nicely set up.
After losing the toss in the first Test in Wellington the Kiwis were never in the game as they got rolled over on the first day and had no answer when it came to Australia batting on a much easier deck than the one they had been sent in on.
Doug Bracewell has picked up an injury between matches so New Zealand will be forced into one change. That change won’t involve Ross Taylor or Mitchell Santner coming back into the reckoning. Both remain on the sidelines so it will be Matt Henry who replaces Bracewell. Neil Wagner could replace Mark Craig if McCullum wants an all pace attack.
Australia will be delighted with their performance in the opening match and a repeat of that will give them every chance of securing that top spot in the rankings but they haven’t had consistency away from home for a long time so there should be a real emphasis on getting that consistency here.
Just like New Zealand, Australia have been forced into a change after Peter Siddle picked up an injury in the opening match. It might have been that he would be replaced by James Pattinson for this game anyway but the injury means he definitely will be. Australia are unchanged aside from that.
Hagley Oval in Christchurch will be the venue for McCullum’s swansong. The ground will be hosting just its second Test match. New Zealand walloped Sri Lanka in the first game here in 2014.
Given the shortage of matches here we don’t truly know how the pitch is going to play but New Zealand coach Mike Hesson was publicly unhappy with how quickly the Basin Reserve track stopped seaming so I’m expecting a pretty juicy deck here which stays bowler friendly for much longer.
I think I’m going to see how the wicket plays before getting stuck into the match market here. I don’t think the toss is going to be as significant as it was in Wellington but even so batting last on these sort of decks isn’t going to be for the faint hearted.
I’m only going with one main bet as such in this match and it is taking advantage of Paddy Power’s new player performance match bet market. They still use the same scoring system but it is player vs player rather than player trying to make a target.
The match in question sees Mitchell Marsh taking on Nathan Lyon. Both men are 5/6 but I don’t see it that way. If the wicket is going to be as green and grassy as is expected them I’m expecting Marsh to play a much more significant part in this match.
Lyon might still bowl a few overs but largely it is going to be the seamers who do the bulk of the work here and when you factor in the advantage that Marsh should have over Lyon with the bat I’m comfortable in the thinking that Marsh is going to put up more points than Lyon in this game.
I’ll also chance a couple of bigger priced bets. The first is on the Test match to end inside three days. The first Test only went midway through the fourth day and the pitch flattened out and became much better to bat on after the opening day.
I don’t think this one will and given that both sides are aggressive with the bat in their hand and neither take a backwards step if the wicket is as lively as expected we could see a couple of very quick innings leading to a very early finish.
I’ll also chance Tim Southee to be the man of the match. These are conditions he should enjoy and I think we’re looking at a bowler to deliver the goods here. Southee had Warner and Burns early in the first game before the pitch flattened out and a couple of early scalps here could send him on his way.
The odd cameo with the bat would do no harm and we saw he is capable of that in Wellington so on this track he looks a big price for a match defining impact at 16/1.
Back Player Performance Match – M.Marsh to beat N.Lyon for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power
Back Test Match End – Days 1,2 or 3 for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 with Paddy Power
Back T.Southee Man of the Match for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Ladbrokes
