The ODI series between New Zealand and Bangladesh concludes on Friday, or Thursday evening if you are reading this from the UK, and it does so with the home side chasing a series whitewash ahead of the T20 matches that follow.
Bangladesh are not only looking to avoid the whitewash and find some confidence for those T20s but also to take the 10 points that are on this match for the World Cup qualifying series, so there is plenty at stake here.
New Zealand
Two different performances have given New Zealand the series and I’m sure they will be wanting to be ruthless and claim the whitewash in this third game of proceedings. They were not as good in the second match as they were in the first one although that is understandable given how well they played in that opening game. They still picked up a comfortable enough victory even if they were made to work a little harder for it.
Moving forward for the remainder of the year it is important that New Zealand maintain their intensity. This is a year of a lot of cricket so if you lose your mojo it could be hard to get it back and even a couple of poor weeks could be costly. With that in mind I would imagine they will be out to be better with the ball and in the field in this match having let Bangladesh get away from them. The other thing they might want is some of their lower order to spend more time at the crease.
Bangladesh
There was a good deal of improvement expected from Bangladesh from game one of the series to this second one and to their credit they produced it, but it still wasn’t enough to win a match despite some big calls going in their favour. There is probably a bit more improvement in them naturally but you get the impression that it is a tactical or style modification that they need if they are going to close out with a win in this final match.
Bangladesh are much improved in the 50 over sphere over the last five years or so but they are not yet at the level where they can take their qualification for the World Cup for granted, particularly in these times when nobody truly knows how much cricket there will be and when it may come along. With that in mind they need to approach every match looking to win. The fact the series has gone here might just give them the chance to free up with the bat and look to dominate the bowling. It is a risky play but it is what separates the best from the rest in 50 over cricket these days.
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Team News
New Zealand are expected to welcome Ross Taylor back for this match after he missed the first two matches of the series. Will Young is expected to be the one to make way. Treat Boult might be rested with Tim Southee waiting in the wings to come in.
Bangladesh are sweating over the fitness of Mustafizur Rahman who has a hamstring issue. Given that the series is gone they might think about resting him but those qualifying points being as important as they are may take that idea away.
Betting
This hasn’t been the highest scoring series known to man and I’m not convinced it is going to end any differently either. I say that because technically this will be the toughest of the pitches to bat on. There is always something in the Basin Reserve pitch for the bowlers and it isn’t the easiest ground to score on. In 29 ODIs on this ground there has only been one score of 300 or more which emphasises that and with some early morning cloud cover around we are unlikely to see that trend changing here.
The boundary line is 58.5 here and we haven’t seen anywhere near that many in better batting grounds than this one so unless there is a dramatic change in the teams or something like New Zealand batting first and going ballistic happens it is highly unlikely that this line gets reached. Even if New Zealand do bat first and post a big score it will bring Bangladesh out of their comfort zone and they could crumble in a heap as a result so all things being equal I like the under here.
Tips
WON – Back Under 58.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 1.73 with William Hill
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