After a washed out fourth match New Zealand now know they can’t lose their ODI series against Sri Lanka but they need to win the fifth and final game of the series in Mount Maunganui on Tuesday if they are to win the series.
Having looked like they would be wiped out completely earlier in the series Sri Lanka head into this last game knowing if they win it they will secure a share of the series which from where they were would be a significant achievement.
New Zealand let their guard slip in the third match in Nelson and could yet pay the price for that because injuries are starting to mount up for them and take their toll.
It was hoped that Brendon McCullum would be fit to play in this match but apparently his condition has worsened so he has been ruled out. Tim Southee and Doug Bracewell are also out but Trent Boult returns for the final game of the series. He is likely to come in for Ish Sodhi or Mitchell McClenaghan.
Sri Lanka couldn’t get going at Christchurch at all but showed wonderful resolve to get a win under their belts at Nelson and they probably head into this match the more confident side of the two. More importantly they might be the more settled side.
I don’t see Sri Lanka making any changes for this final match unless they decide to play another full time spinner but as with the last game the likes of Dilshan and Siriwardana can offer some solid part time options.
This final match will be played at the Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui. It will be the fourth ODI played at this venue. New Zealand have played in two of the previous three here and lost them both which could be another crucial statistic.
There hasn’t been a score of 300 in any of the matches here yet so we should expect the pitch to be a bit sluggish and play a little on the slow side so that will play into Sri Lanka’s hands as well.
If this becomes a battle of the spinners then you would have to favour Sri Lanka in this match not just because they have some effective spinners but also because their batsmen are brought up playing spin on slow, sluggish wickets which New Zealand’s aren’t.
There is no Brendon McCullum to power New Zealand away from Sri Lanka here so if they can keep Martin Guptill in check there isn’t too much between these two sides so at the prices around given that conditions should favour the tourists I’ll chance them here.
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