The 100th season of the National Football League gets underway on Thursday night with the New England Patriots looking to defend their Super Bowl title and 31 other franchises believing they have what it takes to dethrone them in the big game.
As ever ahead of a new campaign there has been a lot of player movement creating plenty of excitement in the fan bases of a number of sides. One thing we are guaranteed is it is going to be competitive once again.
Recent Winners
2018 – New England Patriots
2017 – Philadelphia Eagles
2016 – New England Patriots
2015 – Denver Broncos
2014 – New England Patriots
2013 – Seattle Seahawks
2012 – Baltimore Ravens
2011 – New York Giants
2010 – Green Bay Packers
2009 – New Orleans Saints
AFC
The New England Patriots go into the new campaign as the favourites to win the Super Bowl once again. They have been to the big show for the last three years and six of the last nine but they haven’t successfully defended the title on the last three occasions they won it. Rob Gronkowski has retired which leaves a big hole while Tom Brady is another year older so this dynasty that is the Patriots at present is in its twilight years if indeed it didn’t end last season. They are 7/1 for the Super Bowl. You should never rule them out but they’re not for me.
Kansas City Chiefs were beaten in the play-offs last season when superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes came to the party in a big way. They were free scoring both with their offense and their defence and generally one of the most entertaining sides in the competition. They won’t need to improve too much to be competitive again here but they will need to ensure they get the defence better balanced. They are sure to be popular at 8/1 to go two steps further than last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers are the third favourites to win the Super Bowl. They are arguably in the hardest division in the AFC this year which isn’t a help to their chances but Melvin Gordon holding out for a new deal could be problematic. They have strengthened the defence with the addition of Thomas Davis and have a potent offense so the tools are there for another excellent season to build on their 12-4 effort last time around but I’d prefer KC of the two.
The Cleveland Browns have been talked about as Super Bowl contenders ever since they secured the signing of Odell Beckham Jr from the New York Giants. They then went and added Kareem Hunt to their ranks although he is going to miss at least half of the season with injury. Sheldon Richardson beefs up the defence while Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb showed signs of improvement in Ohio last year. It is still the Browns though and I can’t bring myself to get too excited about them although common logic would dictate we will see a much improved campaign from them at the very least.
NFC
The New Orleans Saints are the shortest price in the Super Bowl odds from those sides in the NFC. They will be hoping this is their year after two crazy bad beats in the postseason over the last two campaigns. They fell victim to the Miracle of Minneapolis two years ago then ran straight into the worst pass interference non call you’ve ever seen last year. To make matters worse for Sean Payton and his crew, PI can now be reviewed for the first time this term. There’s a strong case to be made that the Saints have been the best team in the NFC for a while now and at 10/1 they’ll be popular this year.
Los Angeles Rams were the team on the right side of that truly awful call in the NFC Championship game last season and they are 12/1 to go back to the Super Bowl and win it this time round. Jared Goff will undoubtedly have learnt from the experience but in that showpiece the Patriots did show that he is a one-dimensional quarterback which would be a concern. Ndamukong Suh has left for the sunnier climbs of Tampa Bay which is another concern. I can see the Rams fading a little more especially if Todd Gurley goes down at any point.
Philadelphia Eagles came with a late run to attempt to defend their title last season but faltered in the play-offs but if they can hit the ground running this time then they shouldn’t be too far away with the Giants and the Redskins still not looking competitive enough in the NFC East. The Cowboys flatter to deceive far too much for my liking and with DeSean Jackson returning to the Eagles and Jordan Howard bolstering the backfield there is a lot to like about them at 14/1.
Green Bay Packers always go into a campaign as one of the favourites to progress through the NFC. That is because they have arguably the best quarterback in football in Aaron Rodgers. He is magic but you wonder what support cast he is working with given that he takes up a huge amount of the salary pot. There is a new coach starting a season for the first time in 12 years at Lambeau Field this year and no side gets better when it loses Clay Matthews. Rodgers will keep the Packers competitive but they’re not Super Bowl contenders for me.
Super Bowl
There are two teams I like for the Super Bowl this season. One of them is a strong fancy and the others not quite so after recent events but I have to pay to see how they get on. Over in the NFC there is so much to like about the New Orleans Saints it is untrue. They could so easily have been to the last two Super Bowls and surely their bad luck has to end at some point. Drew Brees is still competitive at the highest level but he’ll know that genuine chances to be a Super Bowl winner again are running out. He has the best WR in football in Michael Thomas, two gun running backs and a defence which has evolved nicely over the last few years. Barring major injuries to key men the Saints look a standout chance at 10/1.
A couple of weeks ago the side behind the New Orleans Saints in the outright market were the Indianapolis Colts. They were down in the 12/1 to 16/1 range. Andrew Luck then amazingly announced his retirement halfway through a preseason match and all of a sudden they are 66/1 to win the Super Bowl. I’m not going to claim that Jacoby Brissett isn’t a downgrade to Luck, of course he is, but this is a quarterback who learnt the trade under Tom Brady and should be ready to step up and lead a side in his own right. Brian Hoyer’s experience behind him could be valuable to his progression too so I’m happy to take a chance on the Colts at four or five times they price they were recently. They were as short as 12/1 because their roster is very nicely balanced and well stocked. Both lines look among the best in the league and Brissett has a couple of tidy receiving options. Confidence isn’t as high as it would have been a few weeks ago but the AFC South remains wide open and at 66/1 the Colts still retain a chance especially if Brissett can surprise.
Division Betting
I’ll also take a chance on the Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South. Houston Texans won it last year with an 11-5 record with the Colts one game in behind and I’m not convinced it will take a huge amount for those records to switch round. There is the chance they flatter to deceive under Brissett but there’s also the chance he steps up and leads this team better than we’ve seen from him to date.
Chicago Bears were the best side in the NFC North last season and I see no reason why they won’t be again this time round. I would imagine the Minnesota Vikings will be their toughest challengers but that is only if they can keep Dalvin Cook fit and their elite two wide receivers happy. The offensive line doesn’t look as strong in Minnesota as it did last year so Kirk Cousins could be under more pressure. I guess the Bears are under pressure too after a 12-4 season but they look elite defensively and drafted well to their offense. Mitch Trubisky made the game look easy last year and if he continues to progress the Bears should claim the NFC North again.
While I accept Los Angeles Rams as the favourites in the NFC West, I have concerns about them should the rumours of arthritis in the knee of Todd Gurley be true. We saw in the Super Bowl that Jared Goff can be contained and I wonder if they might be vulnerable at some point to the San Francisco 49ers. There was a lot of enthusiasm around the Niners last season heading into proceedings but then an immediate injury t Jimmy Garropolo put paid to that. They finished the season well when he returned though and signs are there is a lot of improvement in them here. There are enough playmakers in San Fran to push for the playoffs and if there is a drop off with the Rams we might well collect on the 11/2 49ers for the West.
Tips
Back New Orleans Saints to win Super Bowl LIV (e/w) for a 2.5/10 stake at 11.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back Indianapolis Colts to win Super Bowl LIV (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfred (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back Chicago Bears to win NFC North for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with Betfair
Back them here:
Back Indianapolis Colts to win AFC South for a 2/10 stake at 6.00 with Betway
Back them here:
WON – Back San Francisco 49ers to win NFC West for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with Bet365
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