Another week of action in the NFL 2024 season begins in the Thursday Night Football which in Week 9 of the campaign takes us back to the MetLife Stadium as two AFC rivals battle when the New York Jets host the Houston Texans.
These two sides have made very opposite starts to their season. The Jets are 2-6 for their year and a loss here pretty much ends their campaign whereas the Texans are 6-2 and can take complete control of the AFC South with a win here.
New York Jets
This clearly isn’t a season that the New York Jets would have wanted. They have changed coach but nothing has improved so we can deduce from that the problem lies with the playing personnel and potentially the quarterback Aaron Rodgers in particular. After winning two of their first three matches, the Jets have now lost five on the spin so they will be hoping that the short turnaround can be to their advantage as they look to end that losing run.
The big issue that the Jets are having is that their offensive output in terms of points is just not cutting the mustard. They are yet to score more than 24 points in any of their matches and in this league these days you generally need more than that even with a great defence. That defence went well for the first six weeks but the last couple of weeks it has been found wanting a little. Some of that is down to the time they have been on the field so on a short week they could really use their offense coming to the party.
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Houston Texans
After winning the AFC South title last season, the Houston Texans are well on their way to retaining that title and a win here would see them taking a big step towards that and then they can focus on getting their seeding in the Conference as high as they can so that they can go as deep as possible in the postseason. It looks like the Kansas City Chiefs are away and gone but the number two seed looks like it is in play and a win here will enhance the Texans’ chances of it.
Houston go into this one 6-2 for the year but they will be all too aware that the two defeats have come on the road and on a short week they will be looking to avoid another of those. They have been very strong defensively this season. In the last five matches they haven’t conceded any more than 24 points and when you consider their two losses were in Minnesota and Green Bay it is hard to pick too many holes in that. Houston should be favourites on form here you would think.
Betting
When approaching this match I was automatically turning towards the under given the issues with the New York Jets’ offense and the injuries that the Houston Texans’ offense suddenly has but the line is in the low forties and while I would still rather be on the under as opposed to the over, it is a tough ask for two defences, which are pretty stout, to stay tough for four full quarters on a short week so tentatively I’ll leave the under alone and look for something elsewhere.
The bet I like is for Dalton Schultz to have more than 40.5 receiving yards. He was getting more involved in the Texans passing game anyway but the injury to Stefon Diggs in addition to Nico Collins is likely to force the hand of CJ Stroud and use his tight end more in the passing game. When you add into the mix that the odds suggest that the game state will be the Texans playing from behind and the Jets are expected to be without their top middle linebacker CJ Mosley, there should be plenty of opportunities for Schultz to get involved. Last week was the only week he has covered this line this season but at the same time it is the only week that Diggs and/or Collins weren’t on the field at some point. Expect a bigger playbook for Schultz here and over 40.5 receiving yards from him as a result.
Tips
Back D.Schultz – Over 40.5 receiving yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
