Turkey day in the NFL 2024 season concludes with the third match of the triple header which is the Thursday Night Football which comes from Lambeau Field as the Green Bay Packers are in Thanksgiving action when they host the Miami Dolphins.
The Packers are pushing hard for a wildcard spot in the NFC and are still hoping for a late collapse from the Detroit Lions at the front of their division. The Dolphins are the first team on the outside looking in over in the AFC but have some ground to make up so need a win here.
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers have won eight of their 11 matches this season but despite that they are only good enough to hold third place in the NFC North and while they are comfortably in the wildcard spots in the Conference, they will want to keep winning just in case there is a late collapse from the Detroit Lions in the division. Admittedly, that doesn’t look likely right now but the last thing they want is for some Lions losses to come and them not be in position to take advantage.
The Packers have won six of their last seven matches but the one they probably wanted to win more than the others was the one they lost. That was to the Detroit Lions three weeks ago. They come in here off the back of a good win over the San Francisco 49ers where their defence was once again on point and if their offense can begin to flourish once again then it won’t be long before Green Bay secure their postseason spot regardless of what happens in the division.
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Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins certainly haven’t had the season that they would have wanted so far but when Tua Tagovailoa went down with another concussion earlier in the campaign it was probably always going to be a struggle. At one point for the season they were 2-6 for the year but they head to Wisconsin 5-6 for the season and so they are going better now that their triggerman is back under center. A win here would have them on the fringes of taking advantage of any slip ups in the AFC wildcard race.
You could argue that the Dolphins haven’t beaten a lot in the three wins to get them back on track but from where they were they certainly won’t be worried about that. Their offense has put up 34 points in each of the last two games and that suggests that they are getting back to the team that they were last season. If Tua can play a clean game here, which isn’t always the case in the cold, then there is enough either side of the ball to be competitive here.
Betting
This feels like a good spot for the Green Bay Packers on home soil against a side who have question marks over them in the cold and off the back of a short week but these Thanksgiving Day games don’t often follow the logical pattern so I’m happy to let the Packers win if they are good enough and instead chase another angle on a Green Bay win. That comes in the rushing yards of their number one running back Josh Jacobs.
There are a few reasons why I like this player prop. The first one is it is expected to be a Baltic night in Wisconsin so running the ball will be a huge part of the Green Bay offense as ever. Another reason is because the front line of the Miami defence has been ruined by injuries and the third factor is this is a short week and that defence could gas quickly in the cold conditions. Jacobs is running very well at the minute and he’ll be out to put on a Thanksgiving Day show so I expect him to whizz past this total against a bashed up defence.
Tips
Back J.Jacobs – Over 72.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.90 with Coral
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