We are into the first week of September which means that America is gearing up for the start of the NFL 2024 season, which gets underway on Thursday night, as the 32 franchises once again begin their dream of reaching the Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs did that last year and for the second year in succession they lifted the Vince Lombardi Trophy and they will set about a three-peat this year but a number of sides will feel they have strengthened enough to stop them.
Recent Winners
2023 – Kansas City Chiefs
2022 – Kansas City Chiefs
2021 – Los Angeles Rams
2020 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019 – Kansas City Chiefs
2018 – New England Patriots
2017 – Philadelphia Eagles
2016 – New England Patriots
2015 – Denver Broncos
2014 – New England Patriots
AFC
The Kansas City Chiefs have been the team to beat for the last couple of seasons and they are the 11/2 favourites to win the Super Bowl once again. Any side with Patrick Mahomes in it is going to be a threat especially one that has added a lot of pace to the receiving core. Down the line the legal issue with Rashee Rice could be a problem but in the short term the Chiefs look like they are going to take a lot of stopping and there doesn’t look like there is anyone in their division to do it. They are worthy favourites.
The Baltimore Ravens come next in the betting at 10/1 to win the Super Bowl. Lamar Jackson and co made it all the way to the Championship game last season where they were beaten by the aforementioned Chiefs. Derrick Henry was the big incoming in Maryland in the off season and he along with Jackson should form a huge attacking combination. The question marks come over whether the defence will be as good without Mike MacDonald who has gone to Seattle.
Cincinnati Bengals were the last team from the AFC to make the Super Bowl that wasn’t called Kansas City Chiefs. That was in 2021 when they went down to the Los Angeles Rams and they are 14/1 to make it back there. They have had so many offensive issues since then with Joe Burrow not really having the durability that they would have wanted while other parts of the offense has deserted them at times too. If the Bengals are going to be competitive this season they have to sort out the contract issue of Ja’Marr Chase.
Houston Texans had an excellent season under rookie quarterback CJ Stroud and they are 18/1 to improve enough to reach the Super Bowl and win it. I guess the first issue will be whether teams have found Stroud out now that he has had a year in the league but the Texans are in a division which they will be expected to win and would have been prior to signing Stefon Diggs. When you add in Danielle Hunter has joined as well there is a lot to like about the Texans.
NFC
The San Francisco 49ers are the current NFC champions but they couldn’t get the better of the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. You sense this is the season that the Niners have to go one better because they are going to need to completely rework their roster when they need to give Brock Purdy a proper contract and having just given Brandon Aiyuk a lucrative deal that isn’t going to be easy. The San Francisco roster looks very strong so the 6/1 on them to win the Super Bowl will have plenty of admirers.
Detroit Lions were one of the surprise packages of last season and were one win away from the Super Bowl. They have to back that up now but the division looks no harder and so if the youngsters on the roster can continue to impress even though teams know a little more about them then that will serve them well. If they can keep Jahmyr Gibbs and Jamieson Williams fit then the Lions should cruise into the playoffs and from there anything can happen with the 12/1 shots.
Philadelphia Eagles were the beaten Super Bowl side of two seasons ago and they are 14/1 to go one better than that this time around. There has been a fair bit of turnover at the Eagles, largely in the coaching staff with Vic Fangio likely to improve the defence and Kellen Moore having a potent offense to work with the addition of Saquon Barkley only further strengthening them. The NFC East doesn’t feel as strong this season which could help the Eagles but they have to put a shocking end to last season behind them.
Green Bay Packers are 18/1 to win the Super Bowl. Last season was expected to be one of transition in the first without Aaron Rodgers but Jordan Love has so much natural ability that he led the Packers to the playoffs, where they went to Dallas and won. He did that with a young core of receivers who will be a year wiser and so there is a lot of natural improvement in the passing game for the Packers. Personnel additions should add to the strength of the defence and the running game so don’t sleep on the Packers.
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Super Bowl Betting
I’ll take two for the Super Bowl with the main pick coming in the NFC where the Green Bay Packers look a fair bet at 18/1 given that they made the playoffs with so many rookies and relatively inexperienced offensive talents last season. Jordan Love is now established in this team and the Packers have added to their running game which is massive the longer the season goes on. There is a lot of talent in the passing game and a defence which has plenty of quality as well. The division looks like being a battle between the Packers and the Detroit Lions but even if they can’t win the division, Green Bay should get enough wins to get a wildcard. I think they are a fair bet here.
The other bet I like is the Cleveland Browns who basically made the playoffs last season on their defence alone. That defence hasn’t been weakened so if they can get Deshaun Watson to deliver anything in terms of regular activity and output then there is no reason why the Browns can’t go a little deeper in the postseason. They say defences win championships which is becoming a bit more of a nonsense in what is a point scoring league now but it never hurts to have an elite defence in January. The Browns still have some offensive talent at their disposal and I’ll pay to see how well they can go come December and January time.
Division Betting
There are two divisions that I like bets in when it comes to the winners of them beginning with the AFC South where the Houston Texans are odds against in a place and that just looks too big. There is improvement in the Indianapolis Colts if they can keep Anthony Richardson fit with Jonathan Taylor fit again but I still think the Texans are the ones to be on here. CJ Stroud looked a stud last season and he isn’t short of offensive weapons while the defence has had an upgrade with the arrival of Hunter. In a two horse race I’ll take the Texans here.
New York Jets are my other division pick in the AFC East. There was high hopes about them last season but they went after a handful of snaps when the Aaron Rodgers ACL went twang. He is back for this season though and pre-season footage suggests that he is forming a good partnership with Garrett Wilson. The Jets need Rodgers to stay fit but they don’t need him to be lights out this season because the defence is so good. Buffalo have weakened in the off season while Miami need Tua to remain fit for a second season in succession. New England are out of the picture but if Rodgers plays the whole season the Jets are a live runner in this division.
Worst Record
There is a market for the worst record, or in this league the number one draft pick for coming last in the competition. New England Patriots are the favourites for it and given that Bill Belichick is a thing of the past at Foxboro you can certainly see why. They only had four wins last season with him and any worse than that and they would still be in the mix here. Carolina Panthers are certainly another contender but their division isn’t as tough.
That certainly isn’t the case for the Denver Broncos who aren’t likely to get much joy out of the Kansas City Chiefs and if Jim Harbaugh and his strict coaching style brings about the improvement that the Los Angeles Chargers are hoping for they should be tough opponents while Las Vegas Raiders are competent enough. Denver look very weak offensively to me and if the rookie quarterback doesn’t work out there really isn’t a lot to like. Sean Payton did well to lead this side to eight wins last season but half of that might be hard to find this time around.
Regular Season Wins
There isn’t a huge amount that I like in the regular wins markets but the 7.5 line for the New Orleans Saints looks a little low when you consider that they won nine matches last season in a division which was won by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I don’t see the Bucs winning it this time around with the experience they have lost on defence and while an improvement is expected in Atlanta with Kirk Cousins arriving from Minnesota, that isn’t guaranteed.
Derek Carr had an eventful season last term, although he is once again behind an O-line which isn’t helping his cause but in Chris Olave there is a standout receiver for him to connect with. New Orleans have a very solid defence which can’t be said about the other three teams in this division so there are definitely four or five wins in the division waiting for them. The Saints have a bit of a soft schedule too which is no bad thing and so I’ll take them to have more than 7.5 wins.
Tips
Back Green Bay Packers to win Super Bowl LIX (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back Cleveland Browns to win Super Bowl LIX (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back Houston Texans to win AFC South for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with BetVictor
Back New York Jets to win AFC East for a 3/10 stake at 3.00 with Betway
Back Denver Broncos Worst Record for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Betfair
Back New Orleans Saints – Over 7.5 wins for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with Unibet
