I’ve had a few people ask me if I can do NFL previews on the blog so I’ll cover it until the end of the season and then pick it up fully next season.
The NFL playoffs begin on Saturday night when the AFC wildcard matches are played and we should be in for a couple of intriguing matches.
The playoffs begin in Houston as the AFC South winning Houston Texans host the Kansas City Chiefs. It is a quirk of the NFL playoffs that the Texans are at home here even though they won two matches fewer over the course of the regular season.
In many ways that in itself shows up a potential struggle for the Texans but if they were going to face anyone here they might well have chosen Kansas City as the two sides look fairly well matched.
Both are strong on defence while both still have something to prove in offensive areas and both have quarterbacks who have had plenty of negative press over recent times.
Bryan Hoyer has done well to guide the Texans into the playoffs but the South was incredibly weak this season and there was a time he was dropped so it has been a rollercoaster ride while Alex Smith has this reputation as a game manager rather than an offensive force which might be a little harsh as a criticism.
I’m expecting a good defensive battle here. Both sides have pass rushers who can get to the quarterback and all eyes will be on the likes of JJ Watt and Justin Houston to see who gets to the quarterback the best.
Houston have been struggling offensively all season in terms of points scored but they have been very miserly on defence and I think that is a combination that can lead to another tight game with not many points.
Arguably the highlight of the wildcard round matches is the AFC North clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals won the division with a bit in hand yet they are the outsiders for this match.
One reason for that is because their regular quarterback Andy Dalton has been ruled out of the game but his replacement AJ McCarron carries plenty of confidence and might just enjoy the trust he’s been given in a huge match.
Cincinnati are regulars in the playoffs these days but they are still yet to win a game in one under Marvin Lewis with Andy Dalton’s playoff struggles becoming infamous. It might be that his absence isn’t the worst thing given the mental scars on this side under him in the postseason.
One side who don’t struggle in the playoffs are the Steelers but it isn’t ideal that they go on the road from the beginning. Another thing that might not serve them well is a very weak secondary which the likes of AJ Green is sure to feed on.
On the flip side to that they have a quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger who is very reliable and who has done everything there is to do in the game. In Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant, Roethlisberger has plenty of ammunition to throw to but with the absence of a quality running back their offense could get a bit predictable.
The big question here is can the Steelers offense make up for the defensive vulnerabilities. Dalton being out for the Bengals might help in that regard but I’ve still a feeling the Bengals defence could get this one done but not enough to put money on it.
One man I am happy to place my money on is AJ Green. He has a surprisingly low looking receiving yards line at 80.5 which I think he can jump all over. Yes it is a second string quarterback passing to him but the Steelers secondary is so poor it is a match up which Green should dominate that should equate to plenty of yards.
In playoff matches sides often look to their big stars more than normal and that’s what I expect Cincinnati’s game plan to be here and that should see Green sail over 80.5 yards.
I’ll also dabble in the first touchdown scorer market where I’m surprised that Tyler Eifert is still double figures to go in first. The tight end has no fewer than 13 touchdowns on the season and has become a real force in this offense. While the look will be for Green for most of the plays it could be to Eifert’s benefit when it comes to scoring first.
Back Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs – Under 40pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Sportingbet
Back A-J.Green Over 80.5 receiving yards for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with Ladbrokes
Back T.Eifert First Touchdown for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Bet365
