Week 3 of the NFL season draws to a close with an all-NFC South clash in the Monday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons head to the Super Dome to take on the New Orleans Saints. That isn’t just the Saints but the winless New Orleans Saints and that in itself will have the home side under plenty of pressure.
Atlanta Falcons got their first win of the season last week when they outscored the Oakland Raiders so they have a little bit of momentum going into this one and were they to win they would already have a significant advantage over the Saints.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints were outscored in their first game at home this season when the Oakland Raiders shocked them with that crazy 2pt conversion to win the game instead of kicking a PAT which could have forced overtime and there was a lingering effect on them when they went to play New York Giants last week.
They couldn’t get anything going on offense in that game and when their offense doesn’t fire you do fear for this side because their defence is very open and you can score on it quite easily especially when you have a powerful offense like the Falcons have so expect the Saints to try and run the ball to manage possession.
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons have continued where they left off last season in terms of having a powerful offense but a defence which can be exploited. If there is a change that they’ve made it is to find a second running back to really balance out their offense but long term it will be their defence which is likely to decide how successful a season this is.
Injuries aren’t helping them up the middle on defence and we saw Oakland Raiders burn them alive from the backfield last week but fortunately for the Falcons they were able to get a turnover or two when they needed them which allowed them to get the job done and it might come down to that here too.
Betting
Everything points to this being a high scoring game and I would probably agree with that but the points line reflects that heading into the low-middle 50s and I’m not sure I can back the overs on that total. It is just a couple of points too high even though I fully expect a powerful offensive battle here.
With that in mind I’m going to look to the player markets where we can take advantage of the offensive yards with a bet on someone to cover and the one I like the most is Mark Ingram of the Saints.
We saw Oakland power all over Atlanta in their running game last week and while Ingram hasn’t really got going yet this season I fully expect the Saints’ offense to be more balanced this week especially given the favourable match up their backs should have on this injury ravaged Falcons defence.
Oakland ran for 155 yards from 25 carries against Atlanta last week at an average of over six yards per carry and if Ingram can run with the same power and purpose he should get enough of the ball to cover a 59.5 yards line.
Tips
WON – Back M.Ingram Over 59.5 rushing yards for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
Back him here:
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