They say there are two things certain in life – death and taxes. Well you can add a third thing to that now – New England Patriots having home advantage in the NFL playoffs and that is what they have on Saturday night when they host the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots head into the playoffs knowing that as long as they are in them they will be at home while the Texans still hold out dreams of attending their own party as it is them who host the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots
This New England machine is just relentless in the modern era. Even being without Tom Brady for the first quarter of the season the Patriots were never not going to make the playoffs and win their division and since he has returned they have looked amazingly strong and they go into the postseason as the team to beat.
While Brady often gets the majority of the plaudits the contribution of the Patriots defence shouldn’t be understated. The regularly take away the key part of the opposition offense to make life much easier for themselves and if they can restrict the Texans in this match they should be in for a comfortable night.
Houston Texans
Houston will take a postseason win with them into this match. Although the Oakland Raiders were heavily injury ravaged last week the Texans did still have enough poise about them to get the job done despite a few concerns of their own. Their biggest concern is at quarterback where Brock Osweiler must step up to the plate.
One area where there is no doubting the quality of this Houston side is in their defence. Even without JJ Watt they have some amazing defensive players but they will need to be at their very best in order to restrict or even contain the Patriots here. The Texans secondary has to have one of its best ever games for Houston to get this one done.
Betting
I don’t think there is too much doubt about who will win this match. We’re talking one of American sports biggest upsets of all time for the Texans to win this match and I don’t see that happening. I expect the Patriots to win but whether they can cover 15pts I’m not sure. I’m sure they can but will they want to given the time of the season? I’m not so sure about that.
With that in mind I’m going to head to the player markets and the one thing about the Patriots is the Tom Brady to Julian Edelman combination. It has been red hot in recent weeks and you have to go all the way back to week eight for the last time Edelman didn’t pick up 70 yards in a match.
Even allowing for the quality of this Houston defence I’m surprised Edelman’s receiving yards line is as low as 67.5. No matter how good the defence is Brady finds his man and I’m expecting Edelman to go way beyond 67.5 yards in this one.
Tips
WON – Back J.Edelman – Over 67.5 receiving yards for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Skybet
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